developed during the second scenario workshop (WS2) did not include any original GEO-4
text, except for Economy First. WS2 stories contained largely new material reecting the view of the subgroups. Additionally, the
title of each story was changed, indicating the increased ownership of the stakeholders. The nal scenarios were entitled: Economy
First (EcF), Policy Rules (PoR), Fortress Europe (FoE
/media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf
judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations
or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%;
extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not > 50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very
unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
The hydrological simulations were performed with the Wa-
tershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS) developed
and operated in the Finnish Environment Institute (Vehviläinen
et al., 2005). The WSFS is used in Finland for operational hydrolog-
ical forecasting and flood warnings (www.environment.fi/water-
forecast/), regulation planning and research purposes
(Vehviläinen and Huttunen, 1997
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
was therefore formed
by ice lifting and deformation induced by subglacial water pressures higher than ice
overburden pressure.
The discharge data and the derived size of the subglacial flood path, as indicated
by the volume of water stored subglacially, indicates a development towards more
efficient subglacial flow over the course of the jökulhlaup. Thus, a discharge in the
iii
range 80–90 m3 s 1
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf