www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 319 1 FEBRUARY 2008 573
POLICYFORUM
Systems for management of waterthroughout the developed world havebeen designed and operated under the
assumption of stationarity. Stationarity—the
idea that natural systems fluctuate within an
unchanging envelope of variability—is a
foundational concept that permeates training
and practice in water-resource engineering
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
Trausti Jónsson (IMO, Ice) - The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) -
the WMO method and its application in Iceland
Abstract
Natural hazards have always been a major threat to individuals and the society in Iceland.
During a period of optimism after the Second World War it was assumed that progress and
modern development would soon marginalize such threats. A series
/media/loftslag/Trausti_Jonsson_(IMO,_Ice).pdf
Exploring reasons why the risks of natural hazards seem to be ignored
by H. Asbjørn Aaheim, CICERO
Researchers give different explanations to why the risks of natural hazards seem to be ignored by
individuals, and management strategies are often deemed inappropriate. This presentation combines
empirical evidence from various disciplines and theoretical insights in order to identify critical
/media/loftslag/Asbjorn_Aaheim_(CICERO,_Norway).pdf
Assessment Re-
port (AR4).
Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their ef-
fects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while
Topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 pre-
sents projections of future climate change and related impacts un-
der different scenarios.
Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the
next few decades
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
up to the year 2050, assuming best-estimate climate changes
under the SRES A1B emission scenario.
Changes in temperature are likely to proceed much faster in comparison with natural
variability than those in precipitation. At present (2010), typically about 70% of all months
are expected to be warm (above the median for 1961-1990) in northern Europe, and by the
year 2050 this fraction
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
in the case-studies,
and on a global scale, will be tested to their limits by the
effects of climate change. This requires innovative and
adaptive ways of managing water, which can be referred
to as ‘‘Adaptive and Integrated Water Management’’
(AIWM).
To deal with existing and new complexities, water
resources management must be able to respond to changes
in the natural and social environment
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf