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REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 28
Figures
Figure 1. Volcanic zones of Iceland, shown in yellow (Einarsson & Sæmundsson, 1987). .... 8
Figure 2. Mean annual number of days per year with snow covered ground
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf
global radiation), i.e., the
sum of the direct and diffuse solar radiation. The quantity can be expressed in W/m2 or
MJ/m2per time unit. In this account, changes in incident radiation are viewed both in
absolute1 and percentage terms.
Model output data were downloaded from the CMIP3 data archive. There were a few
models for which the simulation for one of the three scenarios was missing; in those
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_solar_CMIP3.pdf
in comparison with natural variability, the simulated greenhouse-
gas-induced precipitation changes are weaker than changes in temperature. Thus, for example,
the probability that the mean annual precipitation in 2011-2020 in northern Europe will
exceed the mean for 1971-2000 is only 60-80%, depending on the region considered.
However, the probability increases in later decades when the signal
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
low in Arctic summer sea-ice extent, with 20% less ice area than the previous all-time record minimum of 2005 - the difference is more than 12 times the area of Iceland. This is part of a long-term trend of more than 8% ice extent decline per decade since the late seventies.
Analysis of simulation results from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), show that the Arctic could be free of ice
/about-imo/news/nr/1665
/monitoring/locations.GIF
Global mean temperature since 1850
– warming in most places, but not everywhere
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/IPCC 2007, Fig. 3.9
The global water cycle
- changes when temperature change
A warmer atmosphere can hold
more water
(c. 6-7% per 1°C)
Global mean precipitation and
evaporation increase
(c. 1-2% per 1°C)
Longer residence time for H2O
/media/ces/Moberg_Anders_CES_2010.pdf
and are expressed in watts per square metre (W/m2).
5 Includes only carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphurhexafluoride(SF6), whose emissions are covered by the UNFCCC. These GHGs are weighted by their 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), using values
consistent with reporting under the UNFCCC.
6 This report
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
then increased around
00:30UTC and it is still very active with 1-10 earthquakes per minute. Later in
the night the activity shifted closer to the volcano in Geldingardalir. This
activity can be explained as magma intruding in the crust. There are currently no
indication of volcanic tremor in the area. Up to this point this
seismic swarm counted around1.400 automatically detected earthquakes and 90
/about-imo/news/update-on-the-eruption-in-geldingadalir
then increased around
00:30UTC and it is still very active with 1-10 earthquakes per minute. Later in
the night the activity shifted closer to the volcano in Geldingardalir. This
activity can be explained as magma intruding in the crust. There are currently no
indication of volcanic tremor in the area. Up to this point this
seismic swarm counted around1.400 automatically detected earthquakes and 90
/about-imo/news/update-on-the-eruption-in-geldingadalir/
0) and today, 16 December (week 18). The cumulative moment and numbers of events are calculated for each week; i.e. for each week the earthquakes of certain magnitude ranges were counted and the moment of all earthquakes was simply summed up.
Both upper panels show the activity in the dyke, where left panel shows the cumulative moment release per week and the right panel the weekly number
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/3039
@fmi.fi
THIS POSTER IS A SUBSET OF A DELIVERABLE REPORT
AVAILABLE FROM
http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/~jaraisan/CES_D2.2/CES_D2.2.html
SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE
CHANGE FORECASTS
A schematic view of sources of uncertainty in climate change as a function of
time. In the long run, most of the uncertainty relates to the magnitude of
greenhouse gas emissions (unknown future behaviour
/media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf