-2050
30-year flood
XX
Flood frequency estimation applied
to annual maximum flood series
% change in
200-year
flood
Projected change in 200-yr. flood
between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050
Change (%)
90th percentile
of 150 models
Median of
150 models
Change (%)
Range of uncertainty in projections
Median of
150 models
Change (%) Range (%)
Range
10 to 90%
Downscaling method
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
is reduced.
3.2 Total Precipitation
As with surface air temperature (SAT), total precipitation (TP) depends on surface type and terrain
elevation (see Fig. 9). Similarly to SAT, the terrain of Iceland only induces a weak wave pattern
in the larger-scale northeast to southwest gradient in the GCM ensemble mean field of TP during
the 1961–90 control period, resulting in about 0.5 mm day 1 lower mean
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
-
grated water management: agency, awareness raising and
education, type of governance and cooperation structures,
information management and—exchange, policy develop-
ment and—implementation, risk management, and finances
and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an
explorative character intended to identify general patterns
in adaptive and integrated water management and to
determine its
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
or system dynamics
models, provide benets which go beyond the production of the model itself. The discussions and negotiations
between the groupmembers during themodel building, for example, improve the group’s shared understanding of the
management problem and its solutions. As such, participatory modelling can be a tool for supporting the type of social
learning currently being promoted for water
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
Tremv-ALERT: A new early warning
system to detect volcanic tremor
Bethany Vanderhoof
Þórður Karlsson
Yesim Cubuk Sabuncu
Kristín Jónsdóttir
VÍ 2021-008
Skýrsla
Tremv-ALERT: A new early warning
system to detect volcanic tremor
VÍ 2021-008
ISSN 1670- 8261
Skýrsla
+ 354 522 60 00
vedur @vedur . is
Veður st of a Íslands
Búst aðaveg ur 7 – 9
108 Reyk j avík
Bethany Vanderhoof
Þórður Karlsson
Yesim
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2021/VI_2021_008.pdf
judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations
or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%;
extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not > 50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very
unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
; Jylhä et al., 2008; Räisänen, 2008) and to de-
crease snowmelt floods, which are currently the largest floods in
most parts of Finland. Significant changes in seasonality of runoff
and floods may occur in areas where a large proportion of runoff
is from snowmelt (e.g. Lettenmaier et al., 1999; Bates et al., 2008).
Finland extends from 70 North with sub-arctic climate to 60
North in the margins
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
Jökulhlaups in Skaftá: A study of a jökul-
hlaup from the Western Skaftá cauldron
in the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland
Bergur Einarsson, Veðurstofu Íslands
VÍ 2009-006
Skýrsla
Jökulhlaups in Skaftá: A study of jökul-
hlaup from the Western Skaftá cauldron
in the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland
Bergur Einarsson
VÍ 2009-006
ISSN 1670-8261
Skýrsla
+354 522 60 00
+354 522 60 06
vedur@vedur.is
Veðurstofa
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf