that such a system can potentially be in equilibrium. It is more
Fig. 4. Output of various Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. X-axis: number of iteration steps; Y-axis: value of selected concepts.
K. Kok / Global Environmental Change 19 (2009) 122–133128
Author's personal copy
significant that it can be maintained without any policy incentive
(C12 < 0.05 after 20 iterations). In terms of the Fuzzy Cognitive
Map, using
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
0.95
vhm149 1.46
vhm205 1.01
vhm206 1.28
vhm221 0.9
vhm265 1.16
vhm277 0.87
vhm278 -0.12
18
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−2 0 2 4 6
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−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q/
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Q]
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
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vhm148
vhm149
vhm205
vhm206
vhm221
vhm265
vhm277
vhm278
Regional +/− 95% CI
H1 0.995
H2 −0.877
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/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
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/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
water infra-
structure projects begun now are large
enough to push hydroclimate beyond the
range of historical behaviors (19). Some
regions have little infrastructure to buffer the
impacts of change.
Stationarity cannot be revived. Even with
aggressive mitigation, continued warming is
very likely, given the residence time of
atmospheric CO2 and the thermal inertia of
the Earth system (4, 20/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf