that such a system can potentially be in equilibrium. It is more
Fig. 4. Output of various Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. X-axis: number of iteration steps; Y-axis: value of selected concepts.
K. Kok / Global Environmental Change 19 (2009) 122–133128
Author's personal copy
significant that it can be maintained without any policy incentive
(C12 < 0.05 after 20 iterations). In terms of the Fuzzy Cognitive
Map, using
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for earthquake early warning in southern
California, Science, 300, 786-789.
Shieh, J-T.,Wu, Y-M. & Allen, R. M. (2008). A comparison of τc and τ
p
max for magnitude
estimation in earthquake early warning. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20301,
doi:10.1029/2008GL035611.
Pétursson, G. G. & Vogfjörd, K. S. (2009). Attenuation relations for near- and far-field peak
ground motion (PGV, PGA) and new magnitude
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_012rs.pdf
when local information alone (method 2) is
not sufficient.
In order to take into account seasonal effects, a moving window of +/– 45 days centered on the
target day was considered for the selection of analogues, so that in an archive made of Y years,
each target day was at most associated to Y x 91 potential analogues. The window size was
arbitrarily defined and not optimized. A similar window
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