Tengö, D. Timmer,
and M. Zurek. 2007. Linking futures across scales:
a dialog on multiscale scenarios. Ecology and
Society 12(1): 17. [online] URL: http://www.ecolog
yandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art17/.
Borgatti, S. P., and P. C. Foster. 2003. The network
paradigm in organizational research: a review and
typology. Journal of Management 29(6):991-1013.
Brenner, N. 2001. The limits to scale
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
; the other series was conducted after
the workshops for evaluation purposes (post-
process). In the post-workshop round, 12 interviews
were conducted. They focused on specific situations
during the process, as well as the tangible outputs
and learning processes. The interviewees were
selected on the basis of stakeholder analysis and
subsequent workshop experiences so as to represent
a wide range
/media/loftslag/Daniell_etal-2010.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Resources and Energy Directorate
Edited by: Heidi H. Pikkarainen
Print: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Number printed: 130
Cover design: Rune Stubrud
Prepared for: The CES project
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Middelthunsgate 29
P.O. Box 5091 Majorstua
N-0301 OSLO
NORWAY
Telephone: +47 22 959595
Fax: +47 22 9590 00
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
h
Hydro production
Sintef Energy Research Quantitative system analysis 19 of 21
Introduction
Electricity system model
Simulation results
Summary and concluding remarks
Average annual energy balance, NordPool
Sintef Energy Research Quantitative system analysis 20 of 21
Introduction
Electricity system model
Simulation results
Summary and concluding remarks
Average annual in ow increase with 12-13
/media/ces/Mo_Birger_CES_2010.pdf
Vestmannaeyjar, 12 km off the south coast of Iceland. It is surrounded by sea to the east, south and west. The elevation above sea level is 118 m. Distance from the fishing town on the island is 4.5 km, distance to the nearest village on shore is 40 km and distance to the nearest town on shore is 70 km. That town has less than 5000 inhabitants. This is an ideal seashore background station at 63°N, 20°W
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/
data
KraflaNorth EsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
KvískerSouth EsjObs.Info.Obs. data
Kvísker VegagerðarstöðSouth EsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
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L
LambavatnBreiðafjsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
LandmannalaugarCentralxfInfo.Obs. data
LaufbaliCentralsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
LaxárdalsheiðiBreiðafjsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
/weather/stations/
10:25 – 10:40
Icelandic Perspective and Hemispheric Overview (Chair: Edward Hanna)
Iceland: on the northern flank of the jet stream – T Jónsson
Circumpolar Vortex: Calculations and Correlations – P Jones
Response of the wintertime atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice
decline – G Magnusdottir
Group Discussion
10:40 – 11:00 Coffee Break
11:00 – 12:45
11:00 – 11:20/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate
Change Research. Bulletin of the Americal Meteorological Society, 88, 1383-1394.
Naki enovi , N. and R. Swart (Eds.) 2000: Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of Working
Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
599 pp.
Räisänen, J. and L. Ruokolainen 2006: Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate
/media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf