on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
deviation across the ensemble) and sign agreement (a percentage of models in the ensemble that
project the same sign of changes as the entire ensemble does).
Analysis
In Fig.1a shown are simulated changes in the annual extreme temperature range calculated
as difference between 20 yr mean absolute annual maxima and minima temperatures in baseline
and future scenario periods. The range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Christian Refsgaard, GEUS All week
AP Adriaan Perrels, FMI All week
SK Sigrún Karsldóttir, IMO All week
FU Frederik Uldal, University of Copenhagen Logistic support
Course material
Papers and book chapters - recommended reading
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management, 88, 1025-
1036. doi:10.1016
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?
Methodological reflections on scalar structuration.
Progress in Human Geography 25:591-614.
Bryan, B. A., N. D. Crossman, D. King, W. S.
Meyer. 2011. Landscape futures analysis: assessing
the impacts of environmental targets under
alternative spatial policy options and future
scenarios. Environmental Modelling and Software
26(1):83-91.
Buizer, M., B. Arts, and K. Kok. 2011. Governance,
scale
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
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and Jónsson, S.
Importance of groundwater modelling in hydrological modelling in Iceland and implementation of the
groundwater module in the hydrological model WASIM for two water sheds in Iceland .................................... 84
Einarsson, B. and Jónsson, S.
The effect of climate change on runoff from two watersheds in Iceland .............................................................. 86/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
closer to Reykjavík, eight years before that. As elsewhere in Europe sulphur concentration is lower now than when measurements began. Average value of sulphur is about 0.5 mg/l in precipitation, about 0.1 μg/m3 in aerosol and about 0.07 μg/m3 in air.
Stórhöfði - a seashore background station
Stórhöfði is at the south end of island Heimaey which is the largest of the Westman islands
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/