judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations
or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%;
extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not > 50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very
unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
from
Öræfajökull can cause complete destruction of man-made structures almost
anywhere in sectors at risk of flooding. The potential impact of major floods
on the local economy is high. Question: How much time is available at the onset of an eruption
for a full evacuation of the floodplain?Answer: Jökulhlaups can
be very swift, reaching the lowlands in as little as 20–30 minutes from
/volcanoes/about-volcanoes/oraefajokull/q-a/
about 20-25% in 2010 to about 50% in 2050. Perhaps surprisingly,
a particularly high probability is found in Iceland, most likely as a result of the small
12
interannual variability there. As expected, the probability of very warn years rises even faster
than that of warm months – in northern Europe from typically 30-40% in 2010 to about 60-
80% in 2030 and to 85-95% or even more in 2050
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
an 80 km2 ice-filled
caldera. The characteristic activity is explosive basaltic eruptions occurring on central volcano flanks or the
fissure swarm. Known eruptions have mostly been VEI 3-4 but occasionally VEI 5-6 (bulk volume of tephra up
to 10 km3). The largest eruptions occurred in the early Holocene, effusive basaltic eruptions on the fissure swarm
with lava volumes ≥20 km3. Eruption
/media/jar/Bardarbunga_kafli20140825.pdf
an important part of the runoff from many areas. In total, approximately
20% of runoff in Iceland originates from groundwater (Hjartarson, 1994a).
In the above mentioned previous simulation of runoff map for Iceland for the period 1961–
1990, groundwater was omitted. Effects of groundwater flowing across watershed
boundaries were simulated by scaling the precipitation for each watershed. On watersheds
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf
........................................................ 19
2.3.2 Changing the maximum number of events in a group ................................. 20
2.3.3 Rearrange order of input .............................................................................. 22
2.3.4 Relocate only the best events ....................................................................... 22
2.3.5 Other tests
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_003rs.pdf
and
how future climate change within the next 20–30 years can impact these resources.
In the future, an increase in the utilization of various sources of bioenergy will increase in Nordic
countries. This raises a question what is the biomass production potential of forests now and in the
future and how sustainable the energy production based on biomass are owing to possible large-scale
harvestings
/media/ces/CES_BioFuels_Flyer_new.pdf