) Measured 1997 and 1999 ice surfaces of Lang‐
jökull and Hofsjökull, respectively. c) Steady‐state glacier
geometries after a few hundred year spin‐up with constant
mass balance forcing.
Figure 3: Simulated response of Langjökull (L), Hofsjökull (H)
and southern Vatnajökull (V) to climate change. The inset
numbers are projected volumes relative to the initial stable
ice geometries
/media/ces/ces_flyer_glacierssnowandice.pdf
EA Analyse A/S and Optensys
Energianalys will forecast energy system variables, while SINTEF Energy Research will make
assumptions for the energy system in different cases, include new inputs in the EMPS model and
carry out simulations.
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/media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
-
balance model
• Monthly temperature
• Monthly precipitation
Step 2: Extrapolation of model
parameters to all glaciers in
Iceland and Scandinavia
• Gridded climate variables
Step 3: Future projections until
2100 for each glacier:
- run mass-balance model
- Volume-area scaling
Volume-area-length
scaling
V = c Aγ
• Glacier inventory data
• downscaled GCM scenarios
A(t
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ΔV
Methodology
Step
/media/ces/Hock_Regine_CES_2010rs.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
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Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
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GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
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Figure 1. Scenario building for AWM in Horsens Fjord
To estimate of the adaptation strategy (Table 2) we will use back-casting approach. The assessments
of the productivity of this approach are based on main big strategies which need to have an attention.
One of them
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
for
monitoring cryopsheric changes
Mauro Fischer, Matthias Huss and Martin Hoelzle ........................................................... 13
Monitoring the geodetic mass balance of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps with a long-
range terrestrial lidar system
René Forsberg, Henriette Skourup and Sine M. Hvidegaard ............................................ 14
A decade of lidar measurements
/media/vatnafar/joklar/Reykholt-abstracts.pdf
all sites was calculated (RMSET ):
RMSET (%) =
1
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i=1
v
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t1
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L
l=1
Qi(D;Tl) bQi(D;Tl)
Qi(D;Tl)
2
x100 (7)
where Qi(D;Tl) is the reference flood quantile at gauged site i and return period Tl , calculated
with the GEV distribution fitted to the observed AMF series and bQi(D;Tl) is the estimated flood
quantile, calculated with the IFM ( bQi(D;T ) = bµi(D)qR(D;T )). RMSET was ranked
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
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/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
Radic, V., Roald, L. A., Rosberg, J., Rogozova, S., Sigurðsson, O., Suomalainen, M., Thorsteinsson, T., Vehviläinen, B., & Veijalainen, N. (2007). Impacts of climate change on river runoff, glaciers and hydropower in the Nordic area. Joint final report from the CE Hydrological Models and Snow and Ice Groups. Reykjavík: Climate and Energy [Report (high resolution 15 MB)] [Report (low resolution 4 MB
/climatology/research/ce/publications/