less than
10/10
9+
10/10 10
Undetermined or unknown x
Concentration (C)
C – Total concentration of ice in the area, reported in tenths (see symbols in table 3.1).
Note: Ranges of concentration may be reported.
Ca Cb Cc – Partial concentrations of thickest (Ca), second thickest (Cb) and third thickest (Cc)
ice, in tenths.
Note: Less than 1/10 is not reported. 10/10 of one stage of development
/media/hafis/frodleikur/ice-chart_colour-code-standard.pdf
of the area
and mean elevation for the ice-free and glaciated parts of each elevation band or grid cell. The
areas are denoted by ai and gi, and the elevations by zi and yi, for the ice-free and the ice-covered
areas, respectively. At the end of each hydrological year, the hydrological model will provide
a simulated value for the total mass balance of each glacier group within the watershed, DVa
/media/ces/ces-glacier-scaling-memo2009-01.pdf
Denmark, DK). Participatory planning processes - Group model building
10:00 p9 Simo Haanpää (Aalto University, Fi). Ilmasto-opas.fi (ClimateGuide.fi) web portal - a new tool for managing climate change in Finnish municipalities
10:30 tea/coffee break
11:00 break out sessions : Thursday cases revisited
12:00 - 13:00 lunch
13:00 p10
Helle Katrine Andersen (DANVA, Dk). DANVA CC adaptation plan
/nonam/workshop/program/
to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
!
!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des
m
m
/
m
å
n
e
d
55550 Hafslo
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb ar apr ai j j l t
m
m
/
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å
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55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal
Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
distribution and parameter estimation methods
The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution (Jenkinson, 1955) is adopted to model the
flood frequency distribution at each site, from the AMF series:
Qi(D;T ) =
ei +
ai
ki
(1 [ ln(1 1=T )]ki) if ki 6= 0
ei ailn( ln(1 1=T )) if ki = 0
(6)
where ei is the location parameter, ai is the scale parameter and ki is the shape parameter.
The method of probability
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
of
complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect may
create other problems.
Complex problem:
A problem with many relationships between parts that give rise to
collective behaviour of the system.
Complex system approach
A broad term encompassing a research approach to problems in
many diverse disciplines including computer science, AI, biology,
sociology, etc.
Common elements
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
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logi
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cenari
o
Pa
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oc
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(PP
)
imp
ortan
tt
o
de
al
w
ith
un
certaint
y
Pa
rti
cip
at
o
ry
pr
o
ce
ss
(PP
)im
po
rta
n
tt
o
de
al
w
ith
u
n
ce
rta
in
ty
:
Pa
rti
ci
pa
to
ry
go
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se
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ng
:c
o
n
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf