nostaa,
m utta
oh ijuoksutu
ksia tulee
Sähkönvas tus kasvaa
-> energ iahäv iö ita
Muuntajien
elinikä lyhenee
Jääkannen
m uodostaminen
h idastuu
Very likely,
the
probab ility
that the next
decade is
warmer is
90% .
Ilm iö
1 .1 – korkeammat
läm pötilat etenkin talvella
Skenario
1. Lä mpimäpi i lmasto
O ma luokitteluOma luokit te lu
Nykyiset t ai
tuleva t
varautumiskahdo
llisuudet
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
of
complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect may
create other problems.
Complex problem:
A problem with many relationships between parts that give rise to
collective behaviour of the system.
Complex system approach
A broad term encompassing a research approach to problems in
many diverse disciplines including computer science, AI, biology,
sociology, etc.
Common elements
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
cia
l
sy
ste
m
):
th
re
e
m
ai
n
gr
ou
ps
o
fthreat
s
ar
e
at
th
e
scene
:
cl
im
at
e,
so
ci
o
-e
co
n
o
m
ic
s
an
d
gover
nanc
e
1:
M
ai
nl
y
ep
ist
em
ic
pl
us
som
e
onto
logi
ca
l
2:S
cenari
o
Pa
rti
ci
pa
to
ry
pr
oc
es
s
(PP
)
imp
ortan
tt
o
de
al
w
ith
un
certaint
y
Pa
rti
cip
at
o
ry
pr
o
ce
ss
(PP
)im
po
rta
n
tt
o
de
al
w
ith
u
n
ce
rta
in
ty
:
Pa
rti
ci
pa
to
ry
go
al
se
tti
ng
:c
o
n
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
distribution and parameter estimation method
The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution (Jenkinson, 1955) was adopted to model the
flood frequency distribution from the AMF series:
Qi(D;T ) =
ei +
ai
ki
(1 [ ln(1 1=T )]ki) if ki 6= 0
ei ailn( ln(1 1=T )) if ki = 0
(7)
where ei is the location parameter, ai is the scale parameter and ki is the shape parameter.
The method of probability weighted
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
[Q(t);Q(t 1);Q(t 2)]
E[Q(ui);Q(ui 1);Q(ui 2)]
, ai =
Qb(t)
Qb(ui)
, bi =
Q(t) Qb(t)
Q(ui) Qb(ui)
,
and Qb(t) and Qb(ui) are baseflows calculated using the UKIH baseflow separation method
(Piggott et al., 2005). All rescaling coefficients were limited to a minimum value of 0.25 and a
maximum value of 5.
4.5 Deterministic prediction
A deterministic forecast was derived from the ensemble by taking
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
of events closely.
Photo: Sigurlaug Gunnlaugsdóttir.
Bárðarbunga
Pálmi Erlendsson, Bergur H. Bergsson and others installing GPS and com-
munication equipment. Photos: Þorgils Ingvarsson and Benedikt G. Ófeigsson.
I C E L A N D I C M E T O F F I C E / A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 4
5
The magma intrusion from Bárðarbunga
to the eruption site at Holuhraun and
related tremor pulses
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/IMO_AnnualReport2014.pdf
and our intention is to run these models dur-
ing times of hazardous events and even on a daily
basis to further improve monitoring.
Avalanche monitoring has progressed. The em-
phasis is now on improving our services, especially
to the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration
with regard to transport. The reason is that com-
munity structure has changed considerably in recent
years and the need
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
level in Skeidará waned. The last sign of a
crater explosion was seen at GRF early on 6
November, leaving only a weak tremor signal
from the remnants of the jökulhlaup. The
jökulhlaup fi nally ended in early December,
after ~0.8 km3 of water had drained from the
Grímsvötn lake (J. Hardardóttir, personal com-
munication, 2005).
Location and Volume Constraints
Earthquake locations at Grímsvötn
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
a systematic com-
parison of results to observed precipitation has been carried out. Un-
dercatchment of solid precipitation is dealt with by looking only at
days when precipitation is presumably liquid or by considering the
occurrence and non-occurrence of precipitation. Away from non-
resolved orography, the long term means (months, years) of observed
and simulated precipitation are often
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf