precipitation, temperature or discharge) lies in the empirical 100(1 p)%
prediction interval, 100(1 p)% of the time. The ranked probability score (
RPS) (Wilks, 1995)
was also used to evaluate the probabilistic flow forecasts across K=10 classes of flow quantiles,
covering all observed outcomes. The closer
RPS is to 0, the better, and the worst possible
RPS
score is (K–1). The performances
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf