to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (
2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of
CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf