{WGIII
3.2, TS.3, SPM}
45
Topic 3 Climate change and its impacts in the near and long term under different scenarios
3.2 Projections of future changes in climate
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per de-
cade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios.
Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.1
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
atmosphere, and
particularly on the low-level wind field.
The earlier of the two runs for each case and initial snow cover serves as a control for the later
run. By comparing forecast hours 0 – 48 of the later run, with forecast hours 24 – 72 of the
earlier run, it was found that, for all three cases, the atmospheric component of the model loses
memory of the initial conditions within 12 – 24 hours
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grated water management: agency, awareness raising and
education, type of governance and cooperation structures,
information management and—exchange, policy develop-
ment and—implementation, risk management, and finances
and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an
explorative character intended to identify general patterns
in adaptive and integrated water management and to
determine its
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
are
based on statistical information, Akaike’s Information Criterion
can be used to select the best model. This method has
successfully been applied to another type of qualitative model
(see Lundquist, 2007). Additionally, a standard sensitivity
analysis can be performed to determine which weighting
factors are important and for which the system is insensitive.
In this simple example
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf