developed during the second scenario workshop (WS2) did not include any original GEO-4
text, except for Economy First. WS2 stories contained largely new material reecting the view of the subgroups. Additionally, the
title of each story was changed, indicating the increased ownership of the stakeholders. The nal scenarios were entitled: Economy
First (EcF), Policy Rules (PoR), Fortress Europe (FoE
/media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf
is not addressed in the
CES/ENSEMBLES RCM-GCM matrix
• Observations
Simulated
• Rubel and Hantel (2001)
ECHAM5
Problems with global climate models
Details in precipitation are not captured: example winter (DJF)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
mm/month
Downscaling methods:
Improving global climate
scenarios
Global Regional
Regional climate models (RCMs)
head2right Increased resolution
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
The Icelandic Meteorological Office owns a weather radar which is situated on Miðnesheiði, just outside of the Leifur Eiríksson airport. It is used to monitor real time precipitation.
The weather radar has a 240 km radius, which is displayed with the highlighted dial on the image. The radar reflects signals from precipitation but also from other objects
/weather/articles/nr/1221
than can be expected to originate from the cauldrons, three to four times the wa-
ter equivalent of the accumulation of snow over the watershed of the cauldrons. It has
been estimated that flow from the cauldrons, in addition to the jökulhlaups, could be
2–5 m3 s 1 at maximum (Vatnaskil, 2005). It is possible that part of the sulfate-rich
groundwater from the glacier comes from the cauldrons
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf