FOREST BIOMASS FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION –
POTENTIALS, MANAGEMENT AND RISKS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Ashraful Alam, Antti Kilpeläinen, Seppo Kellomäki
School of Forest Sciences,
University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu
F t Cli t d R bl E I t Ri k d Ad t tiu ure Cl ma e an enewa e nergy – mpac s, s s an ap a on
Oslo, Norway
2 June, 2010
Contents
• Forestry in Finland
• Challenges
• Objectives
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
and our intention is to run these models dur-
ing times of hazardous events and even on a daily
basis to further improve monitoring.
Avalanche monitoring has progressed. The em-
phasis is now on improving our services, especially
to the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration
with regard to transport. The reason is that com-
munity structure has changed considerably in recent
years and the need
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
2015, 2025, 2035 and 2050
North (Blanda) East (Karahnjukar) South (Thorisvatn)
Change in average inflow to the main storage reservoirs
Watershed
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Last 50 years
Last 20 years
Last 15 years
Last 10 years
Last 5 years
Temperature corrected
Transformation of climate measurements
•Change in temperature
• 0.75 °C/100y 1950-1975
• 1.55
/media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
TS.1b, TS.2b}
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions
F-gases
CO2 from fossil fuel use and other sources
CH4 from agriculture, waste and energy
CO2 from deforestation, decay and peat
N2O from agriculture and others
GtC
O
2-eq / y
r
28.7
35.6
39.4
44.7
49.0
The largest growth in
GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004
has come from energy supply, transport and industry, while resi-
dential and commercial
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
in Iceland: Climate projections and historical changes in precipitation type Andréa-Giorgio R. Massad, Guðrún Nína Petersen, Halldór Björnsson, Matthew J. Roberts & Tinna Þórarinsdóttir99
20,6
/about-imo/publications/2022/
by
rescaling a dimensionless regional flood frequency distribution or growth curve, qR(D;T ), com-
mon to all sites of the homogeneous region, with the so-called index flood, µi(D), of the target
site:
bQi(D;T ) = µi(D)qR(D;T ); (1)
where bQi(D;T ) is the estimated flood quantile, i.e. the T -year flood peak discharge averaged
over duration D, at site i. The regional growth curve, qR(D;T
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
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CES conference, Oslo, Norway, 31 May - 2 June 2010
Typical features
• develop slowly,
• become severe when they cover a large region and persist for an
extended period.
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Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north
/media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
interpolated to
VIC scale
Regional Bias:
spatial example
GSM: NCEP Global
Spectral Model
obs prcp GSM prcp
obs temp GSM temp
JULY
Verification using NCEP
Global Spectral Model
(GSM) output
Process into the daily VIC-scale
input time series
Force hydrology model to
produce streamflow
Ohio R. flow @ Metropolis, IL
Start with GSM-scale monthly observed
T & P (“unbiased”) time series
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
Results
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m
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Max snow depth
Trend slope
Number of snow days
Period II
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Max snow depth Number of snow days
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Correlation analysis (1961-08)
138 mutual stations
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Correlation with
winter
temperature
Correlation with
winter
precipitation
In warmer regions both snow
parameters
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf