Energy (Risø DTU, Denmark)
� VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT, Finland)
With assistance from:
� Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
� Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Contact: Jari Schabel, Research scientist
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1300, 33101 Tampere, Finland
jari.schabel@vtt.fi
� University of Eastern Finland
/media/ces/ces_risk_flyer.pdf
the Barents Sea (reduction in sea ice )
checkbld a tendency to strengthening of wind extremes over the Baltic Sea
checkbld ensemble mean is sensitive to the number of simulations in the ensemble
Conclusions
checkbld strong underestimation of warm extremes (open-land observation and
grid box average model, not sensitive to driving GCMs)
checkbld the key role of driving GCMs in the simulated cold extremes
/media/ces/Nikulin_Grigory_CES_2010.pdf
Resources and Energy Directorate
Edited by: Heidi H. Pikkarainen
Print: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Number printed: 130
Cover design: Rune Stubrud
Prepared for: The CES project
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Middelthunsgate 29
P.O. Box 5091 Majorstua
N-0301 OSLO
NORWAY
Telephone: +47 22 95 95 95
Fax: +47 22 95 90 00
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
of seismicity with respect to longitudes.
NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE ICELANDIC POLICE
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
Graph a Graph b
Figure 7 Graph a) shows a time series for the GPS station in Vonarskad (VONC), the station is labelled with a black box
on the earthquake map above. The time series shows a change in the location of the station to the north (top
/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20150130.pdf
to changing climate conditions. This includes changes in
production modes and infrastructure. In the third set of socio economic conditions the society is willing to
change their lifestyle, which allows the implementation of adaptive measurements which can be
considered as out of the box solutions, e.g. abandoning agriculture completely. In general in all three socio
economic condition sets
/media/loftslag/Group2-report.pdf
- nitrate reduction in underground medium medium large large large
Model technical uncertainty
- numerical approximation small small medium small
- bugs in software medium medium small
SUM:
Importance Type of uncertainty
Error propagation
Box 1 Error propagation rules using standard deviation (σ )
Addition and Subtraction: z = x + y + .. or z = x - y - ..
..)()( 22 ++= yxz σσσ
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
1
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change based on
global climate model simulations (CES deliverable 2.2)
Jouni Räisänen1
Kimmo Ruosteenoja2
19 December 2008
1 Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
Email: jouni.raisanen@helsinki.fi
2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Email
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
/longitude box extending from 10–30W and
60–70N) revealed that the model ensemble average exhibited considerable warming
in the last decades of the 20th century and into the 21st,
but the warming rate was half of the warming rate that actually occurred. If
the CMIP5 ensemble average warming is used as an indicator of the forced
(anthropogenic) warming trend, then about half of the recent observed
/climatology/iceland/climate-report