the validity of the ideal gas law, hydrostatic
balance, a piecewise linear vertical gradient of air temperature, and neglecting the effects of water
vapour. Pressure, p, as a function of height can then be derived through vertical integration of the
hydrostatic balance equation, and is given by
p(h(x;y);z) = p0 exp
g
R
Z h(x;y)+z
0
dx
T (x )
; (5)
where p0 is pressure at mean sea level, T
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backgrounds, scientific disciplines, value systems and interests.
The level of uncertainty characterises how well the uncertainty can be described within
the range from determinism to total ignorance (Fig. 1), where determinism is the ideal, non-
achievable, situation where everything is known exactly and with absolute certainty. Within
this range, statistical uncertainty can be described using well
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and with absolute certainty, an ideal that is never achieved in policy relevant sciences due to
the complexity of the problem dealt with (Krayer von Krauss 2005). In this range,
statistical uncertainty can be described in statistical terms, e.g. measurement error due to
sampling error, inaccuracy or imprecision. In contrast, scenario uncertainty cannot be
described statistically. Scenarios are common
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when setting up the Peak-over-Threshold model is to select a threshold that is
large enough not to violate the basis of the GP distribution, but low enough so that enough data
are extracted from the original timeseries. Several methods exist to determine the ideal threshold
for a timeseries, often done manually (e.g. Coles, 2001). This is not possible when dealing with
a large set of timeseries
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