@vedur . is
Veður st of a Íslands
Búst aðaveg ur 7 – 9
150 Reyk j avík
Philippe Crochet, Icelandic Met Office
Tinna Þórarinsdóttir, Icelandic Met Office
Contents
1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 72 Study area and data ..................................................................................... 8
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
-2008: 1-2%
2010: 3-4%
Probability distribution of winter mean
temperature in Helsinki: 1961-2008 vs. 2010
How frequently at least as
cold as in winter 2009-10
(-7.4°C)?
1961-2008: 14%
2010: 6%
+
1
.
3
°
C
-
7
.
4
°
C
Probability distribution of winter mean T
in Helsinki: the best-estimate future?
+
1
.
3
°
C
-
7
.
4
°
C
How frequently at least as
mild as 2007-08 (+1.3°C)?
1961-2008: 1-2/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
no
tcaus
e
mor
e
problem
si
n
th
e
(far
)futur
e
(20
year
s
o
r
more
)
Vos
s
et
al
.(
200
6),
Dub
e
an
d
Swatu
k
(200
2),
Kicker
te
t
al
.(
199
7)
Alread
y
no
w
preparation
s
ar
e
take
n
fo
rth
e
(far
)futur
e
(20
year
s
o
r
more
)
Raadgeve
re
t
al
.(
200
8),
Pahl-Wos
te
t
al
.(
2007
c),
Vos
s
et
al
.(
200
6)
13
.Flexibl
e
measures
,
keepin
g
option
s
ope
n
Measure
s
take
n
no
w
o
r
propose
d
fo
rth
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
/CES_D2.4_task1.html
2
Table of Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 22. Methods and data sets 5
3. Results for temperature 7
4. Results for precipitation 14
5. Tables for individual locations 19
6. Summary 24
Appendix: details of methodology 26
A.1 Data sets 26
A.2 Derivation of regression coefficients 27
A.3 Smoothing of the probability distributions 30
References 31
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf