.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
as the forecast period.
On the other hand, the probability distributions derived using the resampling ensemble
method are in most cases wider than those produced with the normal distribution method,
particularly so for precipitation change. This difference stems from the different treatment of
natural variability:
x In the normal distribution method, all simulations available for the same emission
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
(ECT)
Working paths and
machinery transportation
+ C
Rotation period
Plant production and
transportation
Site preparation
a
r
b
o
n
Planting
E
n
e
r
d
i
o
Thinnings/ harvesting
operations
h di
g
y
i
x
i
d
e Emission parametersEcosystem model
S ort stance
transportation
Long distance
n
p
u
t
E
m
i
s
Emission calculation tool
transportation
Chipping
s
i
o
n
CO2 balance
14
Energy wood
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
with the general observation of a slowly fading activity in almost all other data sets.
Inter-event waiting time
For the Bárðarbunga caldera, inter-event waiting time for earthquakes equal to or larger than M5 has been plotted* during the four months period from the onset of events until 15 Dec 2014. On the y-axis, waiting time is given in hours. The x-axis shows the relevant earthquakes
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/3039
-
m
a
k
e
r
P
u
b
l
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c
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ernanc
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t
ron
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ar
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c
ie
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i
f
i
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x
per
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s
(
g
eo
s
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ie
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c
e
s
,
e
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
s
,
s
o
c
iolog
y
,
p
s
y
c
hol
o
g
y
)
Publi
c
/
pri
v
a
t
e
-
-
I
nd
u
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t
ri
e
s
Pri
v
a
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t
ron
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ar
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W
a
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upplie
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u
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l
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c
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t
ron
g
M
ar
k
e
t
F
ar
m
er
s
/media/loftslag/Group5-Stakeholders_involvement.pdf
i
on
c
a
p
ac
i
t
y
A
r
ea
of
r
e
s
i
d
en
c
e
(Flood
p
r
one
/non
p
r
one
a
r
eas)
Un
c
e
r
t
a
n
t
i
e
s
H
i
g
h
wi
l
l
i
n
g
n
e
s
s
t
o
p
a
y
L
o
w
wi
l
l
i
n
g
nes
to pay
D
i
k
e
s
H
i
gh
t
a
x
a
t
i
on
-
E
arly
w
arn
i
n
g
s
y
s
t
e
m
s
-
Sof
t
s
t
r
uct
u
r
a
l
m
e
as
u
r
e
s
-Community training
L
o
w
taxation
Risk
P
e
r
c
e
p
t
i
o
n
B
e
n
e
f
i
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
+ x−k) (1)
Public Choice (2012) 151:91–119 95
with k = 1,2, and −k = 1 if k = 2, −k = 2 if k = 1. The variables xik and x−k are the
contributions to the public good of subject i as mover k and mover −k, respectively. The
contribution of the first mover is an integer x1 ∈ [0,10] and that of the second mover takes
one of the two values x2 ∈ {0, x1}.
2.2 Theoretical predictions
As noted
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
of melt water from glaciated
areas in long integrations for a warming climate.
Glacier dynamics
This problem can be qualitatively analysed by considering the continuity equation for ice vol-
ume, which may be expressed as
¶h
¶t
+
¶q
¶x
= b or
¶h
¶t
+~ ~q = b ; (1)
for a one-dimensional ice flow channel or an ice cap that flows in two horizontal dimensions,
respectively. h is ice thickness, q or ~q
/media/ces/ces-glacier-scaling-memo2009-01.pdf