14 0 1 2 3 8 12
15 0 1 2 3 8 12
16 0 1 2 4 8 12
17 0 1 2 4 8 12
18 0 1 2 4 8 12
19 0 1 2 4 8 13
20 0 1 2 4 8 13
21 0 2 3 5 9 13
22 1 2 3 5 9 13
23 1 2 3 4 9 13
MEAN 1 2 2 4 8 13
10
AE
R
OD
R
OM
E
CLIM
A
T
OLOGICA
L
SUMMA
R
Y
-
T
ABL
E
D
AE
R
OD
R
OME
:BIK
F
-
KEFL
A
VÍ
K
/K
efl
avi
k
PERIO
D
O
F
RECORD
:2001–201
0
L
A
TITUDE
:6
3
59’06"
N
LONGITUDE
:2
2
36’20"
W
ELE
V
A
TIO
N
AB
O
V
E
MSL
:5
2
/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
Withdrawal
Reliability
Grand Coulee
Recreation
Reliability
R
e
l
i
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
(
%
,
m
o
n
t
h
l
y
b
a
s
e
d
)
Control
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
RCM
2040-2069
60
80
100
120
140
Firm
Hydropower
Annual Flow
Deficit at
McNary
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
C
o
n
t
r
o
l
R
u
n
C
l
i
m
a
t
e
PCM Control Climate and
Current Operations
PCM Projected Climate
and Current Operations
PCM Projected
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology
of a large-scale agricultural catchment
Lieke van Roosmalen,1 Torben O. Sonnenborg,2 and Karsten H. Jensen1
Received 5 December 2007; revised 21 November 2008; accepted 19 January 2009; published 18 March 2009.
[1] This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use
change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
level, surveys commissioned by the European Com-
munity/the European Union provide an indication of trends in concern about cli-
mate change. Since 1992, such surveys have been undertaken among representative
samples of citizens in its Member States, and specifically on topics related to the
environment (Special Eurobarometers (EB) in 1992, 1995, 2002; and a Flash EB
in 2002). These have included
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
50
60
70
80
90
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
o
f
C
a
t
e
g
o
r
y
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
i
e
s
Mobile Homes
0
10
20
30
40
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
measures
Downscaling and
statistical correction
Water system impacts
Hydro-ecological models
Socio-economic
scenarios
Socio-economic
impacts
Fig. 2 Structural elements in
the assessment of climate change
impacts and adaptation illustrating
the uncertainty cascade
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change
Tabl
e
1
Ch
aracterisatio
n
o
fke
y
sou
rce
s
o
fun
certaint
y
in
th
eun
certaint
y
casc
ad
ean
d
thei
rnatur
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
in Finland
Noora Veijalainen a,*, Eliisa Lotsari b, Petteri Alho b, Bertel Vehviläinen a, Jukka Käyhkö b
a Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
b Department of Geography, FI-20014 University of Turku, Turku, Finland
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 7 January 2010
Received in revised form 13 June 2010
Accepted
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
:15-11:30
Practical examples + conclusions
• Exploratory scenario development – SAS approach
• Group model building - Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
• Normative scenario development - Backcasting
Conclusions
LECTURE 1
Scenario development
Underlying issues and concepts
Content
Lecture 1: an introduction
• Complex problems
• Complex System analysis
• Tools and methods to analyse complex systems
o Methods
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Change 19 (2009) 122–133
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 14 November 2007
Received in revised form 21 August 2008
Accepted 25 August 2008
Keywords:
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Scenario
Participation
Resilience
Brazil
A B S T R A C T
The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and
quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
Climate data
o Increase in precipitation
o Change in road deterioration
o Frequency of high and low temperatures
o Heavy rainfall
o Increase in average temperature
Technical state of the roads – state of the Finnish road network: data available from Road administration
Data on past events about climate related damage on roads
Technical development of e.g. asphalt – more durable
/media/loftslag/Group3-Road-scenarios.pdf