and our intention is to run these models dur-
ing times of hazardous events and even on a daily
basis to further improve monitoring.
Avalanche monitoring has progressed. The em-
phasis is now on improving our services, especially
to the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration
with regard to transport. The reason is that com-
munity structure has changed considerably in recent
years and the need
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
level in Skeidará waned. The last sign of a
crater explosion was seen at GRF early on 6
November, leaving only a weak tremor signal
from the remnants of the jökulhlaup. The
jökulhlaup fi nally ended in early December,
after ~0.8 km3 of water had drained from the
Grímsvötn lake (J. Hardardóttir, personal com-
munication, 2005).
Location and Volume Constraints
Earthquake locations at Grímsvötn
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
(Accepted - In press).
Meilutytë-Barauskienë, D. & Kovalenkovienë, M. (2007). Change of spring flood parameters in Lithuanian rivers. Energetika.(Vol. 2) p. 26-33.
Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J. (2009). Climate change impacts on wind energy: A Review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews doi:10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.028.
Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausen, N.E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N
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61, 1-18.
Oddur Sigurðsson (2011). Iceland glaciers. Í: V. P. Singh, P. Singh & U. K. Haritashya (ritstj.). Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers. Springer, Dordrecht, s. 630-636.
Árni Snorrason, Jórunn Harðardóttir & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2011). Climate and Energy Systems – Project Structure. In: Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson & Halldór Björnsson (eds.), Climate Change and Energy Systems. Impacts
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
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e
i
n
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o
s
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o
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i
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w
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s
p
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e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
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i
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y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
/j.jenvman.2007.05.009
Huntjens P, Pahl-Wostl C, Grin J (2010) Climate change adaptation in European river basins. Reg. Environ. Change, 10, 263-284. DOI 10.1007/s10113-009-0108-
6
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf