were carried out to obtain the flow and
sliding parameters for Hoffellsjökull that resulted in a good
simulation of the observed 20th century evolution of the
glacier geometry. The obtained values for the rate factor
and the sliding parameter are A= 4.6× 10−15 s−1 kPa−3 and
C = 10× 10−15 m a−1 Pa−3, respectively.
The ice divide is kept at a fixed location in the model com-
putations presented here
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
in an overall
cold bias, compared with station measurements. To test, whether this is due to the HARMONIE
model core or the external surface scheme, biases of 2-m temperature from SURFEX are com-
pared with biases of temperature projected from the lowest two model levels to 2 mAGL. It is
found that the negative temperature biases are due to shallow inversion layers near the ground,
which are introduced
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_005.pdf
improving
management policies and practices by learning from the
outcomes of implemented management strategies. Partici-
patory integrated assessment is here a form of problem
structuring for identification of gaps, ambiguity and
multiple frames, confrontation, and integration of the
most divergent views with respect to a given problem
situation.
Additional methods and tools that AM require com/media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf
- nitrate reduction in underground medium medium large large large
Model technical uncertainty
- numerical approximation small small medium small
- bugs in software medium medium small
SUM:
Importance Type of uncertainty
Error propagation
Box 1 Error propagation rules using standard deviation (σ )
Addition and Subtraction: z = x + y + .. or z = x - y - ..
..)()( 22 ++= yxz σσσ
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
the com-
plexity of the hydrological processes through modelling, but its application is usually limited to
the short-range. Although the results demonstrated a great potential for this method, its success-
ful application in real-time will strongly depend on the quality and availability of streamflow
observations, which can be poor or simply missing during periods of variable durations, e.g
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf
14 0 1 2 3 8 12
15 0 1 2 3 8 12
16 0 1 2 4 8 12
17 0 1 2 4 8 12
18 0 1 2 4 8 12
19 0 1 2 4 8 13
20 0 1 2 4 8 13
21 0 2 3 5 9 13
22 1 2 3 5 9 13
23 1 2 3 4 9 13
MEAN 1 2 2 4 8 13
10
AE
R
OD
R
OM
E
CLIM
A
T
OLOGICA
L
SUMMA
R
Y
-
T
ABL
E
D
AE
R
OD
R
OME
:BIK
F
-
KEFL
A
VÍ
K
/K
efl
avi
k
PERIO
D
O
F
RECORD
:2001–201
0
L
A
TITUDE
:6
3
59’06"
N
LONGITUDE
:2
2
36’20"
W
ELE
V
A
TIO
N
AB
O
V
E
MSL
:5
2
/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
the principalmethods have not changed much over the years, theamount of field work has varied. In the first 15 yearsthe monitoring programme at Storbreen was com-prehensive, often three or more snow density pits
were dug, snow depth was measured at about 600points and ablation was measured on 30 stakes
evenly distri uted on the glacier (Liestøl 1967).Based on experience of the snow pattern, the ob-
servations
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
with 20% and 2% for the HIRHAM experiments
using HadAM3H and with 30% and 7% for the ECHAM-
driven experiments for Middle Europe and Scandinavia,
respectively.
[18] RCM output is not available for the entire period
1961–2100 because transient RCM simulations are com-
putationally very demanding. Instead two 30-year time
slices are available; one representative for the climate in
the period 1961–1990
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf