vísbending um þróun farvegarins úr breiðu, óafmörkuðu rennsli yfir í
skilvirkar rásir. Einnig kann að vera að í upphafi hlaupsins hafi töluvert vatnsmagn
safnast upp í vatnsgeymum undir jöklinum sem ekki tóku mikinn þátt í því að flytja
rennsli.
v
Mælingar á vatnshita í Skaftá benda til þess að hlaupvatnið sé við eða mjög nærri
frostmarki þegar það kemur undan jöklinum. Þetta bendir til þess að
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf
with 20% and 2% for the HIRHAM experiments
using HadAM3H and with 30% and 7% for the ECHAM-
driven experiments for Middle Europe and Scandinavia,
respectively.
[18] RCM output is not available for the entire period
1961–2100 because transient RCM simulations are com-
putationally very demanding. Instead two 30-year time
slices are available; one representative for the climate in
the period 1961–1990
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
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Experimental results from photon-counting laser altimetry system MABEL
Henriette Skourup, René Forsberg, Sine M. Hvidegaard, Indriði Einarsson, Arne V.
Olesen, Stine K. Rose, Louise S. Sørensen, Veit Helm, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker,
Malcolm Davidson and Tânia Casal
/media/vatnafar/joklar/Reykholt-abstracts.pdf
73–100Ásdís Helgadóttir, Emmanuel Pagneux, Matthew J. Roberts, Esther H. Jensen og Eiríkur GíslasonShort summaryChapter V. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Rating of flood hazards (pdf 2.35 Mb)Pages 101–122Emmanuel Pagneux og Matthew J. RobertsShort summaryChapter VI. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Spatio-temporal patterns in population exposure to volcanogenic floods
/volcanoes/about-volcanoes/oraefajokull/new-research/
are being used
to analyse the occurrence of dry spells,
both from historical data and from
climate scenario simulations. There is
significant year-to-year variability in the
pattern of rainfall, and this variability is
assessed based on the range of values
from individual years in the analysis.
No change
Increase
Decrease
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Photo by V. Kudryavskiy, LEGMA
Regional
/media/ces/ces_SA_group_flyer_new.pdf
) Measured 1997 and 1999 ice surfaces of Lang‐
jökull and Hofsjökull, respectively. c) Steady‐state glacier
geometries after a few hundred year spin‐up with constant
mass balance forcing.
Figure 3: Simulated response of Langjökull (L), Hofsjökull (H)
and southern Vatnajökull (V) to climate change. The inset
numbers are projected volumes relative to the initial stable
ice geometries
/media/ces/ces_flyer_glacierssnowandice.pdf
EA Analyse A/S and Optensys
Energianalys will forecast energy system variables, while SINTEF Energy Research will make
assumptions for the energy system in different cases, include new inputs in the EMPS model and
carry out simulations.
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/media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
-
balance model
• Monthly temperature
• Monthly precipitation
Step 2: Extrapolation of model
parameters to all glaciers in
Iceland and Scandinavia
• Gridded climate variables
Step 3: Future projections until
2100 for each glacier:
- run mass-balance model
- Volume-area scaling
Volume-area-length
scaling
V = c Aγ
• Glacier inventory data
• downscaled GCM scenarios
A(t
V(t
ΔV
Methodology
Step
/media/ces/Hock_Regine_CES_2010rs.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
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Percentage change in 200-year flood
Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
sampled s urces
N = 115
GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf