Connecting multiple levels of governance for adaptation to climate
change in advanced industrial states
E. Carina H. KESKITALO1 (Carina.Keskitalo@geography.umu.se)
Sirkku Juhola 1 (Sirkku.Juhola@tkk.fi)
Lisa Westerhoff 1 (lisa.westerhoff@gmail.com)
Forthcoming in: Connective Capacities in Water Governance (eds. J. Edelenbos, N. Bressers
and P. Scholten). Ashgate, London.
1
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to a pre-project called Climate, Water and Energy that developed a
comprehensive research program addressing the impact of climate change on the Nordic
energy system. This resulted in the funding of a four year Nordic-Baltic project called
Climate and Energy running from 2003-2006 with its main focus the impact of climate
change on production capabilities as well as the development of the Nordic
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agricultural catchment. An integrated,
distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system
and its discharge to rivers and drains for two climate scenarios (2071–2100). Annual
groundwater recharge increased significantly (especially the B2 scenario), giving higher
groundwater heads and stream discharges and amplifying the seasonal dynamics
significantly. Owing
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and governance
and their interactions. Contributions include papers
by researchers from within the scale and governance
program (Mandemaker et al. 2011, van Lieshout et
al. 2011), or that are closely related to it. Together
they provide a significant contribution to a range of
possible practical solutions when dealing with scale
and/or governance.
SCOPING PAPERS: CONCEPTUAL
CONSIDERATIONS
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the advanced regional climate models RCA and HIRHAM. The section will cover the period until 2050. Probability analysis will provide both decadal ranges and probabilities of climate variability and change in the Nordic region until 2050. The link between regional climate scenarios and the recent/ongoing climate behavior will be analysed. Customized regional climate scenarios for risk analysis
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advanced 400-500 m
northwards from crater, forming an ice depression extending some 700 m from vents.
Seismic tremor: Magnitude similar to what it has been over the last few days.
Earthquakes: An earthquake of magnitude 1.4 occurred under NE-part of
Eyjafjallajökull this morning.
GPS deformation: Indicates very minor subsidence towards the center of the volcano.
Magma flow: No observations
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The warning was partly based on handheld
gas-sensor measurements made on February 3. On February 17 at 13:30 another
group visited the cave and voluntarily conducted the same kind of measurements
using two Gas-Pro handheld gas sensors.The concentration of hydrogen sulfide
(H2S) was zero outside the cave but soon rose to levels above 20 ppm
inside, the level at which some people stop smelling the gas
/about-imo/news/gas-concentrations-in-the-hofsjokull-ice-cave
that the intensity of the activity declining. Currently, three scenarios are
considered most likely: 1) The migration of magma could stop, attended by a gradual reduction in
seismic activity. 2) The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this
scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dike. This would
most likely produce an effusive
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by the current
seismic activity in the past 24 hours. Model calculations, based on GPS data suggest that a total
volume of up to 350 million cubic meters have intruded into the crust since the activity started.
Overall assessment
There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining. Currently, three scenarios are
considered most likely: 1) The migration of magma could stop, attended
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the eruption site.
Four scenarios are likely:
o The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in
seismic activity and no further eruptions.
o The dike could reach the Earth’s surface causing another eruption, possibly
on a new fissure. Lava flow and (or) explosive activity cannot be excluded.
o The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where
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