data from Fokstua/Fokstugu using
monthly lapse rates (as shown in Fig. 3a–b). A lin-
ear temperature lapse rate of 0.65°C/100 m was
applied at all glacier altitudes. A constant value oftransmissivity, τ, of 0.43 was chosen based on
measurements of the AWS in the main ablation
season. Daily values of QTOA wer calculated us-ing standard formula. The constants c0 and c1 werederived from eq. 3 using
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
change over the North Atlantic
and in some simulations also for Iceland. In all areas, including the North Atlantic and
Iceland, a clear climate change signal compared to the spread between the simulations is seen.
The standard deviation calculated from 17 of the simulations are less than 1°C in all areas
apart from Iceland where it reaches between 1 and 2°C and in parts of the Barents Sea where
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
lava field (1 September 2014). In addition to standard weather param-
eters (such as precipitation, temperature, and wind), Harmonie also
simulates snow accumulation, runo?, evaporation, and more.
I C E L A N D I C M E T O F F I C E / A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 4
9
The weather in Iceland 2014
The year 2014 was warm for most of the year, precipitation was
abundant and the sunshine
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/IMO_AnnualReport2014.pdf
- nitrate reduction in underground medium medium large large large
Model technical uncertainty
- numerical approximation small small medium small
- bugs in software medium medium small
SUM:
Importance Type of uncertainty
Error propagation
Box 1 Error propagation rules using standard deviation (σ )
Addition and Subtraction: z = x + y + .. or z = x - y - ..
..)()( 22 ++= yxz σσσ
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
infrastructur
e
Me
d
Hydrology+contex
t
Epistemic
+
Aleator
y
Changin
g
buildin
g
desig
n
standards
,highe
rus
e
o
n
til
e
pipe
s(structural
)
Me
d
P
C
M
L
Sam
e
as
fo
rimpac
t
Increasin
g
ris
k
o
fhea
twave
s
W
ate
r
suppl
y
standard
s
ar
e
no
tme
t
Me
d
Contex
t(desig
n
an
d
operatio
n
practices
)
Aleatory
+
Ambiguit
y
Us
e
o
fintermediat
e
coolin
g
system
s
o
n
wate
r
suppl
y
(non-structural
)
Lo
w
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
”); standard deviations are in brackets.
Psychometric characteristics Climate change
Unknown consequences 4.13 (0.88)
Risks to future generations 4.31 (0.73)
Dread 3.06 (1.12)
Well informed 2.80 (1.14)
Control any risks to myself 2.48 (1.07)
Unfair distribution of risks 3.00 (1.00)
Moral concerns 3.44 (1.03)
(Source: Poortinga and Pidgeon, 2003a).
change (i.e. the ‘dread’ factor in the classic
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
Meteorological Office (IMO) between 2011 and 2014. The model do-
main is also the same as for the IMO operational runs, with 300 240 horizontal grid points cov-
ering the whole of Iceland and parts of the surrounding ocean, and with a horizontal grid-point
spacing of about 2.5 km in both directions. The model is run with the standard 65 vertical levels,
and with a non-hydrostatic dynamic core
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_006.pdf