1 10 100 1000
Return period (years)
P
e
a
k
d
a
i
l
y
d
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e
(
m
3
/
s
)
1961-1990 Gumbel
2021-2050 Gumbel
2021 - 2050 annual maxima
1961 - 1990 annual maxima
X
X
35% increase
in 200-year
flood
Model uncertainty
Seasonal analysis - Rainfall-induced
peak flows in annual maximum series
1961 - 1990 2021-2050
Red – Type 1: > 67% of annual
maximum in mar-july (snowmelt
dominance
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
Introduction
Outline
Methodology
2 Electricity system model
Area model
Production capacities, 2020
3 Simulation results
Hydropower
Thermal production
Energy balance
CO2-emissions
4 Summary and concluding remarks
Sintef Energy Research Quantitative system analysis 2 of 21
Introduction
Electricity system model
Simulation results
Summary and concluding remarks
Outline
Methodology
Outline
Methodology
/media/ces/Mo_Birger_CES_2010.pdf
Considerable flooding
2
3.000–10.000
Great flooding
3
10.000–30.000
Large flooding
4
30.000–100.000
Catastrophic flooding
5
>100.000Eystri Skaftárketill jökulhlaup, November 2015. Chucks of ice were carried with the flood. Photo: Tómas Jóhannesson.
Jökulhlaups can be categorized to different groups depending
on their origin:
Jökulhlaups
/volcanoes/volcanic-hazards/glacial-outburst/
Field report - Holuhraun 3 March 2015
By Baldur Bergsson, Benedikt Ófeigsson, Richard Yeo , Sara Barsotti, Nicole Keller and Evgenia
Iliynskaja
General description of the eruption site
The lava field is cooling down with release of heat. Vapour steam is more evident at the northern edge
of the lava field. Few fumes have been visible at the crater, where no signs of activity have been
/media/jar/field_report_03032015.pdf
are tested: Method I (MI) that uses the same flow
law parameter, A, as in the two studies discussed above, im-
plicitly including basal sliding, and Method II (MII) that in-
cludes a Weertman type sliding law (Paterson, 1994) where
the sliding velocity is assumed to be proportional to a power
of the basal shear stress, τb, (Vslid =C · τmb ); C is the slid-
ing parameter and the exponent m= 3 in our
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
from 1961–1990 to 2021–2050.
Precipitatio
n change
Mean
decrease of
yearly max
snowmelt
Mean
decrease of
yearly max
snow
thickness
Change in
share of
glacier
originated
runoff
Change in
annual
glacier melt
Austari-Jökulsá, vhm 144 +16% 5%–70% 0%–65% 10% 75–150%
Sandá í Þistilfirði, vhm 26 +3% 45%–70% 41%–80% – –
21
Figure 6. Mean discharge seasonality for scenario runs
/media/ces/2010_016.pdf
characteristics:
Type of products: Airborne tephra, water transported tephra
Volcanic Explosivity Index Max: VEI 4; most freq: VEI 3-4; min: VEI 0
Column heights: No information
Duration of eruptions: Weeks to months
Bulk volume tephra (km3): Max: no information, aver: 0.1, min: no information
Fallout beyond 1000 km: No information
Tephra <63µm at 30 km No information
Bulk volume lava
/media/jar/Bardarbunga_kafli20140825.pdf
........................................................................................................................... 3
Summary ............................................................................................................................... 4
Summary of the break-out sessions on road infrastructure ................................................... 6
Summary of the break-out sessions on Horsens case
/media/vedurstofan/NONAM_1st_workshop_summary_v3.pdf
and evapotranspiration to the
surface and groundwater system. The vegetation type deter-
mines the transpiration properties through the crop factor and
the root depth, and the fraction of precipitation that is
intercepted by the canopy. Land use changes can therefore
reduce or amplify future climate change induced hydrological
impacts in a catchment.
[3] A number of studies have focused on the effects
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
-type mechanisms all
contained significant volumetric components. Dahm and Brandsdóttir (1997) interpreted
the distribution of event locations and mechanisms with a vertical dyke intrusion beneath
the northern flank of the volcano. Over the same period, between 3 August 1993 and 6
June 2005, more than 15 cm of deformation was observed in InSAR data, but was centred
just south of the glacier
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_013.pdf