and future precipitation in the Baltic
Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models. Climatic Change 81,
281-291.
Nakićenović, N., and R. Swart (eds.), 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A
Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, 599 pp.
van der
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for collective action.
In other words, there is an overall acknowledgement that achieving practical
steps to address climate change will demand some difficult political, social and in-
dividual choices, which actors at different levels of decision-making are currently
trying to make sense of. Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) recognised that the sciences should be the source
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the 13 scenarios for annual mean temperature at the meteorological station
Hveravellir together with a temperature time-series from Stykkishólmur, western Iceland,
that extends back to the early half of the 19th century. The left panel shows that, with the
exception of the scenario based on the CSIRO_MK35 GCM model, the scenarios exhibit
apparently random interannual to decadal variations
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concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration
Pathway, RCP) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The first
projection is the RCP 2.6, a mild-warming scenario, which requires carbon dioxide emissions
to start declining in 2020 and reach zero by 2100. This scenario is likely to keep global
temperature rise under 2°C by the end of the century. The second projection
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of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4124, doi:10.1029/2002JD002287.
IPCC (2001), Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the
third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. (eds. Houghton,
J. T. , Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.
A. Johnson), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
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) describes a 10-step approach where narrative
storylines are developed and linked to dynamic models in an
iterative procedure. Stories are developed by a stakeholder panel
consisting of the relevant actors in the region under study, while
models are developed and applied by experts. Examples of global
exercises that have used an approach similar to Story-and-
Simulation include the Millennium
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exploratory stories and backcasts
2.1. The pan-European panel workshops — general information
Qualitative scenarios were developed by a group of stakeholders, the so-called pan-European panel, that met for four scenario
workshops between September 2007 and January 2010. The group of stakeholders included representatives from the private
sector, policy, scientists, and non-governmental organisations
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