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positions: from fuel purchase, plant engineering
and up to strategic level
square4 Own experience and thoughts
Viewpoints presented in this presentation do not claim to be general opinions!
Stakeholder Relevance of the CES Project
Jenny Gode, 31 May 2010
Communication
CES Relevance
Improvements
Not widely
known?
Stronger focus
on mitigation
Uncertain
Long-term
Many
scenarios
Policy instru
/media/ces/Gode_Jenny_CES_2010.pdf
boxshadowdwnboxshadowdwn Geographical and hydrometeorological description
of Baltic regions
boxshadowdwnboxshadowdwn Data and methods
boxshadowdwnboxshadowdwn Regional series
- Temperature, precipitation, runoff
boxshadowdwnboxshadowdwn Conclusions
Purpose of the study
To do comparison of the Baltic regional series of
temperature, precipitation and river runoff for period
of last years (1991
/media/ces/Kriauciuniene_Jurate_CES_2010.pdf
calculations.
When including explicit basal sliding in the model, a flow
parameter that characterizes stiffer ice is required (e.g. Aðal-
geirsdóttir, 2000). The available data do not allow the de-
termination of the relative contributions of deformation and
sliding velocities for the glacier. Many combinations of A
and C will produce a satisfactory fit to observations. A se-
ries of model runs
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
(2007), Mass balance
of the Amitsulôq ice cap, West Greenland, in Glacier Mass Balance Changes and Meltwater
15
Discharge (selected papers from sessions at the IAHS Assembly in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil,
2005), no. 318 in IAHS Publication, pp. 107–115, IAHS Press: Wallingford.
Burgess, E., R. Forster, J. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, D. Bromwich, R. Bales, and L. Smith
(2010), A spatially calibrated model
/media/ces/ces_geus_paakitsoq_full_report.pdf
A is similar to the present velocity-attenuation formula used at IMO to estimate local
magnitude ML, which is given by:
8.4)(log1.2)(maxlog 1010 −+⋅−= Mrvelocity
Date
(yyyymmdd)
Origin time
(hhmmss.ms)
Latitude
(˚N)
Longitude
(˚W)
MLw
(M0 SIL)
Mw
(M0SIL)
MLw
(M0CMT)
Mw
(M0CMT)
20000621 005146.985 63.973 20.711 6.6*) 6.6 6.5 6.4
20000617 154040.998 63.973 20.367 6.4*) 6.2 6.5 6.5
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
for
behavioural responses to policy
• Psychological models of behaviour change (e.g., TPB)
Ajzen & Fishbein (1991)
Subjective
norm
Specific
attitudes
Perceived
behavioural
control
Intention Behaviour
Normative
beliefs
Behavioural
beliefs
Control
beliefs
P
O
L
I
C
Y
(3) Factors important for
behavioural responses to policy cont.
• Cost-minimization principle (Loukopoulos et al. 2006)
• Barriers
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_2-Acceptability-of-policy.pdf
that there is something we do not know
Total ignorance (=epistemic arrogance)
• We do not know that there is something we do not
know
Statistical
Uncertainty
Scenario
Uncertainty
Regognized
Ignorance
Total ignorance
Determinism Indeterminacy
Qualitative
Uncertainty
Sources of uncertainty in Water
Resources Management
Data
• physical, chemical, biological, etc.
• scale problems (temporal and spatial
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
24 July 2010
This manuscript was handled by K.
Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief, with the
assistance of Ercan Kahya, Associate Editor
Keywords:
Climate change
Flood
Hydrological modelling
Flood inundation area
Hydraulic modelling
Finland
s u m m a r y
This paper provides a general overview of changes in flooding caused by climate change in Finland for the
periods 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. Changes
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
was used as a
reference map for co-registration and correction of the vertical offset of the
other DEMs. The average specific mass balance was estimated from the mean
elevation difference between glaciated areas of the DEMs. The glacier
mass balance declined significantly between the two periods: from 0.2 to
0.2 m yr1 w. eq. during the earlier period (1980s through 1998) to 1.8 to
1.5 m yr1 w/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf