in the discussion of national adaptation strategies (cf. Swartz et al. 2009; Biesbroek et al.
2010). Arguing that until then these developments had ‘only been assessed in a superficial
manner’ (Biesbroek et al. 2010, p. 441), one recent set of studies has analysed the
development and content of national adaptation strategies to draw lessons on the emergence
of adaptation (Swart et al 2009
/media/loftslag/Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL.pdf
-
elled using precipitation data southwest of the gla-
cier. Results from the model compared well with re-
ported mass balance values for the period 1949–
2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied
between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up.
Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the
period 1924/1925–1948/1949 suggested a cumula-
tive mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
are expecting further changes in the future and these future changes are considered along with many other uncertainties in the design and operational plans for new installations. Substantial changes in the operational environment of the energy industry are also expected due to indirect effects of climate change, such as international agreements to curtail CO2 emissions and a changed role of hydro
/ces/nr/1979
Climate and Energy Systems, 2007‐2010
The Wind Energy group
http://www.os.is/ces
Focus in the CES project is on conditions for production of electricity from wind energy in the Nordic
area and how they might change due to global warming during the next decades. This relates both to
the production potential and especially design conditions for wind farms and their sensitivity to
Focus of the Wind
/media/ces/ces_wind_flyer-hq.pdf
may have caused preseismic velocity changes in the crust. The original design of the network had a
high clock accuracy (±1 ms). S-waves tend to be very clear, and successful 1D velocity model (SIL
model) has been used to locate earthquakes in the area, suggesting relatively simple velocity structure
in spite of active tectonic setting.
Earthquakes in Southern Iceland during the period
/media/norsem/norsem_ingi.pdf
Uncertainty assessment of model simulations is therefore
important, when models are used to support water management
decisions (Beven and Binley, 1992; Beven, 2002; Pahl-Wostl,
2002; Jakeman and Letcher, 2003; Refsgaard and Henriksen,
2004; Pahl-Wostl, 2007; Vandenberghe et al., 2007). Model un-
certainty is in practice often done as an ‘end of pipe’ analysis
that is carried out after model set-up
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
In such a scenario, the design of the participatory process itself becomes crucial to the success of
the process as well as maintaining the interest of stakeholders all through the process. One way to
avoid burn out may be to control and design the flow of information between and to stakeholders in
such a way as to avoid information overload. Another way to avoid loss of interest would be to
ensure
/media/loftslag/Group5-Draft_report.pdf
students. If necessary we can form more than one group for the same topic.
2
Group 1 – Scenarios
Objective
To build scenarios for use in a 20 years planning process aiming at design of a climate change
adaptation plan.
Tasks – questions to be answered
1. Knowledge gathering – climate change effects
o Which knowledge is needed regarding climate effects and the involved uncertainties? What
/media/loftslag/Horsens_breakout_12August.pdf
A heatwave in Iceland
New absolute maximum temperature record in Reykjavík
31.7.2008
During the the last week of July, Iceland experienced a rare heatwave. It culminated on 30 July, when new records were set. The maximum temperature in Reykjavík
/about-imo/news/nr/1362
new wind records since automatic measurements began in town in 2002.
At Stórhöfði, the famous synoptic weather station located on Heimaey island's southern tip, the automatic weather station recorded wind-speed* of 44.6 m/s and gusts of 52.7 m/s, the highest since it was set up in 2004. However, that time-span is short compared to 90 years of manned observation at Stórhöfði.
New records were
/about-imo/news/nr/1732