tg
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n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
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u
n
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nd
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creat
ed
th
e
bas
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fo
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e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
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ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
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Le
en
tv
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3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
/ces/publications/nr/1680
Reykjavík, 139 pp.
Paterson, W.S.B. 1994. The Physics of
Glaciers (Third Edition). Pergamon. 480
pp.
Vogt, P.R., G.L. Johnson and L. Kristjánsson
1980. Morphology and magnetic anomalies
north of Iceland. J. of Geophysics 47, 67-80.
Walker, G.P.L. 1974. Eruptive mechanisms in
Iceland. In L. Kristjánsson, ed. Geodynamics
of Iceland and the North Atlantic Area. D.
Reidel, Dordrecht
/media/jar/Jokull-guidlines.pdf
parameters
– In the light of climate change
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Observed changes in Norway between
1961-90 and 1979-08
• Winter precipitation has
increased by 5-25 %
• Winter temperature has
increased by 0.91–1.34 ºC
(Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2009)
What about snow conditions?
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Snow parameters
Start End
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
would lead to a reduction of 20%
of total annual tourist flow to Spain between 2004 and 2080; Hein, Metzger and Moreno
[9] obtain an average decrease up to 14% in 2060 compared to 2004 - result of higher
losses in summer and slight increases in the remainder of the year-.
Nevertheless, some studies offer a more positive outlook. According to the Fundación
Empresa y Clima [7], the tourist
/media/loftslag/ECONOMIC_EFFECTS_OF_CLIMATE_CHANGE_ON_THE_TOURISM_SECTOR_IN_SPAIN.pdf
(see e.g.
Steg, 2003). In studies from several countries, push
measures are perceived as less acceptable compared to
pull measures (e.g. Ho¨lzer, 2003; Rienstra, Rietveld, &
Verhoef, 1999; Steg & Vlek, 1997). For example, in a
European study, over 90% of the car users supported
improved public transport and park-and-ride schemes,
while less than 20% approved of reduced parking space
and cordon
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006.pdf
ea
th
,
th
e
m
et
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se
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at
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is
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ag
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fo
r
th
es
e
st
ak
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ld
er
typ
es
is
sp
ec
ied
.Sh
oul
d
ther
e
be
tw
o
o
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mor
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model
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g
develope
d
in
th
e
process
,the
n
th
e
typ
e
o
fmode
lt
o
whic
h
th
e
metho
d
wa
s
applie
d
is
show
n
in
parentheses
.O
T
re
fe
rs
to
th
e
co
m
po
si
tio
n
o
ft
he
o
rg
an
iz
in
g
te
am
.
Fo
r
o
rg
an
iz
in
g
te
am
in
vo
lve
m
en
t
in
di
ffe
re
n
t
pa
rt
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
glacier-scaling-hydrological model. 88-89.
Machguth, H., & Ahlstrøm, A. (2010). Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the Paakitsoq Area, Illulisat, West Greenland - Scenarios and Related Uncertainties. p. 42-43.
Melvold, K. & Laumann, T. (2010). A coupled mass-balance and ice-flow model for Midtdalsbreen; projection of glacier length based on climate scenarios (CES). 90-91.
Radic, V
/ces/publications/nr/1940