17 24 64
Sustainability Eventually 5 3 30 28 66
Fortress Europe 18 11 30 23 72
Policy Rules 6 5 13 17 41
Total 44 27 8092 243
844 K. Kok et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 835–851
Author's personal copy
sector. The presence of various climate-related strategies is a consequence of the presence of climate-related obstacles and
opportunities.
3.4.6. Robust elements
Results
/media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf
on Climate Change best estimates for the global mean temperature
change by the end of the 21st century vary from 1.8 qC to 4.0 qC between the SRES scenarios
with the smallest (B1) and the largest (A1FI) greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). For
shorter time horizons, however, the scenario uncertainty is much smaller. On one hand, there
is inertia in the socio-economical system
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
and Torfajo¨kull but not for Eyjafjallajo¨kull, rather than an actual sensitivity difference. Effects
of cold and dry years are ignored in the uncertainty calculation.
(a) (b) Using temperature at Vı´k (c) Using temperature at Hveravellir
AAR (%)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w. eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
E 2025
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf
planning; 2) a state-of-the-art
literature review, examining European and American municipal and regional adaptation strategies, 3)
interviews (20-30) with municipal and regional planners and policy makers in Copenhagen and Portland; 4)
the use of a Multi-Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) software tool to help understand how different groups
rank and value competing planning goals within
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
Figure 53 Impact map for airports in case of an eruption like 1362 at Öræfajökull ................ 82
Figure 54 Impact map for power lines in case of an eruption like 1362 at Öræfajökull ......... 83
Figure 55 5% PM10 probability map for an eruption like 1362 at Öræfajökull. ...................... 84
Figure 56 25% PM10 probability map for an eruption like 1362 at Öræfajökull
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf
(Quante and Colijn, 2016). Work on risk analysis and adaptation is in different
stages in the countries of the world.
Coastal floods have caused problems in Iceland in the past (Jóhannsdóttir, 2017) and are likely to do
so in the future as well. Large coastal floods can be expected in Iceland every 10 - 20 years and the
probability of such events can rise with climate change (Almannavarnir, 2011
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11 / 12 MPI-ESM-LR REMO2009 45 / 85
13 / 14 IHCEC-EC-Earth RCA4 45 / 85
15 / 16 IHCEC-EC-Earth COSMO-CLM4-8-17 45 / 85
17 / 18 CNRM-CERFACS-CM5 RCA4 45 / 85
19 / 20 CNRM-CERFACS-CM5 COSMO-CLM4-8-17 45 / 85
11
3 Which domain, resolution, and models of the CORDEX
project should be selected for the analysis of 21st
century climate change in Iceland?
The subject of this chapter
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2017/VI_2017_009.pdf