ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
g
e
o
s
t
r
o
p
h
i
c
w
i
n
d
s
p
e
e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
including, for example, ensuring dam safety. The
goal of the new Climate and Energy Systems project is to look at climate impacts closer in time and assess the
a n o ect ves o t e ro ect
An evaluation of risk under increased uncertainty in
order to improve decision making in a changing
climate was carried out through the following steps:
development of the Nordic electricity system for the next
/media/ces/ces_risk_flyer.pdf
≤
≤
>−
0
00
0
)(
TTif
TTifTTDDFsnow
≤
>−
0
00
0
)(
TTif
TTifTTDDFice
Mean annual temperature difference
Difference relative to 1971-2000
Difference between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years
barb2right +1°C (25% warmest)
barb2right -0.7°C (25% coldest)
barb2right +1.7°C
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
s
n
o
w
m
e
l
t
(
m
m
/
d
)
g
l
a
c
i
a
l
m
e
l
t
/media/ces/Crochet_Philippe_CES_2010.pdf
study and location of catchments. Catchment vhm278 is embedded
within vhm148 and catchment vhm277 is embedded within vhm149.
9
l
l l l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l l l
l
l l
l
ll l l l
l
l
l ll
l
ll
l
l l
l l
l
0 100 200 300
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
Day since 1st Sept.
Q
m³
/s
VHM 148
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
ll l l
l
ll
l
l
l
ll
l
l
ll l
l
0 100 200 300
15
0
25
0
35
0
45
0
Day since 1st Sept.
Q
m³
/s
VHM
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
extensively used in experimental economics over the
past 20 years. One robust result is that a considerable percentage of individuals voluntar-
ily cooperate, even though the Nash equilibrium is to contribute nothing to the public good
(see Anderson 2001 and Ledyard 1995, for reviews).3 Once we drop the homo-œconomicus
hypothesis, by assuming that either all agents have social preferences or agents
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
- gróðurhúsaáhrif. Lifandi vísindi, pp. 52-54.
Snorrason, Á. (2002). Veður, vatn og orka. Presented at the Ársfundur Orkustofnunar 2003, Reykjavík, Mar 20. 31-39. [Extended abstract]
Snorrason, Á. (2002). Veðurfar, vatn og orka. Presentation, Aðalfundur Jöklarannsóknafélags Íslands. Norræna húsið, Reykjavík, Iceland. Feb 26. [Presentation]
Snorrason, Á. (2004). The International Hydrological
/climatology/research/ce/publications/
Assessment Re-
port (AR4).
Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their ef-
fects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while
Topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 pre-
sents projections of future climate change and related impacts un-
der different scenarios.
Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the
next few decades
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
/ces/publications/nr/1680
Research Basins (NRB) International Symposium and Workshop: 12 August - 18 August, 2009, Iqaluit-Pangnirtung-Kuujjuaq : [conference proceedings, field guide] /editors: Kathy L. Young, William Quinton.Toronto: York University, August 2009. bls. 285-289.
Snorrason, Á. & Harðardóttir, J. (2008). Climate and Energy Systems (CES) 2007-2010. A new Nordic energy research project. In O. G. B. Sveinsson, S. M
/ces/publications/nr/1936
a lottery.
– Prior to the lottery, they could purchase
“mitigation” which would protect them in the
lottery.
– Several rounds were performed at “hit”
probabilities ranging from 1% to 20%.
Hurricane Market Mitigation
Study - Experimental Study
Results
• Market price of mitigation exceeds expected
value.
• Willingness to purchase mitigation
increases as perceived risk increases.
• Willingness
/media/loftslag/FMI_-_Disaster_Mitigation.pdf