out? Who will do the modelling work?
Who should do the technical reviews? Which stake-
holders/public should be involved and to what degree?
What are the resources available for the project? The water
manager needs to describe the problem and its context as
well as the available data. A very important (but often over-
looked) task is then to analyse and determine what are the
various requirements
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more easily
catalyze change and transformation towards
adaptive management than formal processes (see
also Gunderson et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2006).
Informal participatory platforms are considered to
facilitate experimentation and learning (Dore
2007). Increasingly, researchers are involved in
designing such informal processes in order to
support and analyze change (Pahl-Wostl 2006).
Pahl-Wostl
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-
stand the nature of the problem, it is important to grasp the
fundamentals of constructing narrative storylines and dynamic
models. Table 1 lists some of the (archetypical) characteristics of
dynamic models and narrative stories. There is a high degree of
potential complementarity between stories that involved stake-
holders and stimulated creative thinking, and models that are
Global Environmental
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
using data from six recent
Icelandic eruptions: Hekla 2000, Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Fagradalsfjall 2021, and Grímsvötn
1998, 2004, and 2011. For tuning, data for these eruptions had to be converted from IMO’s old
in-house RSAM data format to the new Tremv csv format. In addition to developing the
ALERT module, this project involved several updates to the original Tremv program.
Figure 2
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) organisations.
Secondly, interviews were conducted with adaptation policy-relevant actors at each level,
targeting those actors who are involved in policy development or administration, resulting in a
total of 94 interviews across the four European countries. Each interview was conducted in
the language of the interviewee, transcribed and translated (Table 1).
Table 1: Case study selection
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and
policymakers when analyzing, assessing and managing risk/uncertainty?
In many cases where uncertainty and risk is involved, acts and regulations prescribe different methods of
analyses and/or assessments to be carried out before the decision is made. The ideal is that researchers
provide objective, neutral facts to the policymakers or politicians. However, research and policy are often
closely
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management approach right from the beginning – and
not only after some modelling studies
Stakeholders should be involved in evaluating uncertainties in
connection with problem framing – and throughout a decision
process and associated model studies
Model predictions should always include information on prediction
uncertainties
• All sources and types of uncertainty should be
considered
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ambiguity. However, in decision making
this is seldom the case, because more knowledge does not necessarily converge to a single truth
as seen by stakeholders and hence to more certainty (Warmink et al. 2010). This is particularly
true, when many different stakeholders’ interests, perspectives and perceptions are involved. In
such cases interests and perceived uncertainty can mix together
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf