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55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal
Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
estuary with an area of 46 km2 and mean water depth 2.9m. The catchment of Horsens has an area of
517 km2 and 75% of the area is agriculture. The area has two mean creaks, named Bygholm å and
Hansted å, as well as other small streams.
Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). The sea level rising may
bring more and more flash flood to the coastal area. The fjord
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
a narrow shipping channel with a depth between 7 and 22 m. The
catchment area is 517 km2 and dominated by agriculture (75%) with small areas of forests, wetlands,
lakes and urban areas. The annual freshwater input is in the order of 100 Mm3, where approximately
70% is channelled through two main creaks Bygholm å and Hansted å, located in the inner part of the
fjord. Several smaller streams
/media/loftslag/Horsens_case.pdf
Bygholm å and Hansted å, located in the inner part of the
fjord. Several smaller streams are located on the north and south coasts of the estuary. The average
annual nutrient input to the fiord from freshwater is 1503 tons N and 37 tons P (average from 1985 to
2006). The two main streams and the waste water treatment plant for Horsens town, which is located
close to mouth of Bygholm stream
/media/loftslag/CASE_A___Jes_Pedersen_(Region_Midt,_Dk)_Introduction.pdf
Bygholm å and Hansted å, located in the inner part of the
fjord. Several smaller streams are located on the north and south coasts of the estuary. The average
annual nutrient input to the fiord from freshwater is 1503 tons N and 37 tons P (average from 1985 to
2006). The two main streams and the waste water treatment plant for Horsens town, which is located
close to mouth of Bygholm stream, accounts
/media/loftslag/Case_A___Horsens_Fjord.pdf
types: National database (DJF)
• Precipitation: DMI’s 10 km grid daily values
• Temperature, potential evapotranspiration: DMI’s 20 km
grid
Model calibration/validation (1990-2006)
• 183 discharge stations, daily values
• > 10,000 wells with groundwater head observations
Change in groundwater head and
discharge
Skjern Å
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/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf