M
(171FT
)
FRE
Q
UENCIE
S
(PE
R
CENT
)
O
F
OCCU
R
RENC
E
O
F
CONCURREN
T
WIN
D
DIRECTIO
N
(I
N
30
0
SEC
T
ORS
)
AN
D
SPEE
D
(I
N
KN
O
TS
)
WITHI
N
SPECIFIE
D
RANGE
S
ANN
U
A
L
WIN
D
WIN
D
SPEE
D
(KT)
)
DIRECTIO
N
CAL
M
1–
5
6–1
0
11–1
5
16–2
0
21–2
5
26–3
0
31–3
5
36–4
0
41–4
5
46–5
0
>5
0
T
O
T
A
L
V
ARIABL
E
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35-36-0
1
3
2
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
14
02-03-0
4
0
2
4
4
3
1
0
0
/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
(Percent) By
Year Built Categories
Percent of Homes Damaged By Year Built
Categories
36
24
26
28
30
32
34
Pre 1980 80-96 97-2002 Post 2002
Percent Damaged
All Homes – Damage Per Square
Foot
All Homes - Damage Per Square Foot
2
2.5
D
a
m
a
g
e
P
e
r
S
q
.
F
o
o
t
0
0.5
1
1.5
< 120 120-129 130-139 140-149 > 149
D
a
m
a
g
e
P
e
r
S
q
.
F
o
o
t
Pre 1980
1980-1996
1997-2002
Post 2002
/media/loftslag/FMI_-_Disaster_Mitigation.pdf
Thursday, 14 November
Time Agenda Item
09:00 – 10:30
09:00 – 09:20
09:20 – 09:40
09:40 – 10:00
10:00 – 10:30
Potential Arctic / Mid-Latitude Linkages - East Asia (Chair: Jim Overland)
Rapid Arctic Warming in Recent Decades and Its Impact on Climate Change over East Asia
- S-J Kim
Extreme weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to cryosphere loss - Q Tang
A cause of the AO
/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
of melt water from glaciated
areas in long integrations for a warming climate.
Glacier dynamics
This problem can be qualitatively analysed by considering the continuity equation for ice vol-
ume, which may be expressed as
¶h
¶t
+
¶q
¶x
= b or
¶h
¶t
+~ ~q = b ; (1)
for a one-dimensional ice flow channel or an ice cap that flows in two horizontal dimensions,
respectively. h is ice thickness, q or ~q/media/ces/ces-glacier-scaling-memo2009-01.pdf
of greenhouse-gas-
induced climate change becomes stronger. The sensitivity of the findings to the evolution of
greenhouse gas emissions was also studied, by comparing forecasts derived for the SRES B1,
A1B and A2 scenarios. However, due to the relatively short time frame considered, this
source of uncertainty proved to be smaller than the uncertainties arising from natural climate
variability
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
the cascade of uncer-
tainty becomes greater, which is always the case in this kind of
complex analysis of climate change and extreme events (e.g. Men-
zel et al., 2006).
3.1. Climate scenarios
The climate scenarios in this study are from four global climate
models (GCM) and means of 19 global climate models with three
SRES (IPCC, 2000) emission scenarios (A2, B1 and A1B) and four re-
gional
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
Fokstugu was used, r was 0.882. The differ-
ence in r for the two periods is only 0.015 and doesnot indicate a systematic shift in summer tempera-ture due to the change in station location.
Mass balance modelThe mass balance model calculates the mass bal-
ance, b(z), as the sum of ablation and solid precip-itation:
where Q is energy available for melt, Lm is latentheat of melting and Psolid
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
Based on a report by
Verta et al. (2007)
92.
5
93.
0
93.
5
94.
0
94.
5
95.
0
M A MJ F J J A S O N D
Mean 19702000
Min and max 1970–2000,
natural rating curve
Target water level zone 1
Target water level zone 2
Q=+20%
Q=+10%
Q= 0%
Q=15%
Q=30%
92.90 m snow target 1
92.70 m snow target 2
Water level (m
)
Month
the regulation limits Lake Syväri has target water level zones, which are not legally
/media/ces/Water_resources_man_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
on Climate Change best estimates for the global mean temperature
change by the end of the 21st century vary from 1.8 qC to 4.0 qC between the SRES scenarios
with the smallest (B1) and the largest (A1FI) greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). For
shorter time horizons, however, the scenario uncertainty is much smaller. On one hand, there
is inertia in the socio-economical system
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf