delay
s
o
r
problem
s
Leadershi
p
is
proactive
;anticipate
s
o
n
problem
s
2.
Leve
lo
fcohesio
n
Leadershi
p
is
abl
e
to
formulat
e
an
d
articulat
e
internall
y
consisten
tpolic
y
preference
s
Jupill
e
an
d
Caporas
o
(199
8)
3.
Leve
lo
fauthorit
y
Leadershi
p
ha
s
authorit
y
to
ac
t
externally
,i
n
particula
rth
e
lega
lcompetenc
e
in
give
n
subjec
tmatte
r
(B
)Awarenes
s
raisin
g
&
educatio
n
5
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
6
0
20
40
60
80
10
0
12
0
14
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm51
heM
95?bh ??Obs
95?bh ??W aSiM
95?bh heM
Annual max. Q : GEV Distributions for vhm51
Index flood model no. 6
l l l l
l
l l l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
−2 0 2 4 6
0
50
10
0
15
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm52
heM
95?bh Obs
95?bh
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
M A M J J A l
ll l
l
l
l
l
l
l
lll
l
l
lll
0 100 200 300
60
0
80
0
100
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm102
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
30
40
50
60
70
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm116
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
20
0
30
0
40
0
50
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
tg
ui
da
n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
n
u
n
de
rs
ta
nd
in
g,
creat
ed
th
e
bas
is
fo
rth
e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
m
ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
an
d
Le
en
tv
aa
r
200
3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
Knowledge
gathering
Proposal
Testing
Revision
Decision-
making
Milestones
26 August 2011 PM/YZ/EPP 5
Phase
s
Du
r
at
i
o
n
(
mon
t
h
s
)
O
V
I
s
Problem iden
t
i
f
i
ca
t
i
on
2
A
l
l
St
a
k
ehol
d
e
r
s i
d
ent
i
f
i
ed an
d
selected wi
t
h
i
n 2 mo
n
t
h
s
I
n
f
o
r
ma
t
i
on pro
v
i
s
i
on
2
Kic
k
-
of
f
m
e
et
i
n
g
hel
d
Knowled
g
e ga
t
he
r
i
n
g
6
/media/loftslag/Group5-Stakeholders_involvement.pdf
]
m
³/s
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
E[Q(D=0)] vhm148
l
l
REF
IFM−ROI
IFM−CLU
l IFM−WaSiM
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
2 4 6 8 10 12
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
IFM no.
E[
Q]
m
³/s
l l l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
E[Q(D=0)] vhm149
l
l
REF
IFM−ROI
IFM−CLU
l IFM−WaSiM
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l
2 4 6 8 10 12
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
IFM no.
E[
Q]
m
³/s
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l l l
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
at
e
(C
limat
e
models
)
GC
M
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
RCM
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
Initia
lco
n
ditions
/
nat
ura
lva
riabilit
y
X
X
XX
X
D
ow
ns
ca
lin
g/
sta
tis
tic
al
co
rr
ec
tio
n
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
W
ate
r
syst
em
impact
s
(H
yd
ro
-e
co
lo
gi
ca
lm
o
de
ls)
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Socio
-econo
m
ic
imp
act
s
(So
ci
o-
ec
on
om
ic
to
ol
s)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
A
da
pt
ati
on
m
ea
su
re
s
X
X
X
X
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
Time
Main assortments
l l d Energy biomassSaw ogs Pu pwoo
Small trees Residues Stumps
5
Use of biomass based energy in Finland
Pellets
1% (0.5 Mm3)
S d tForest residues
and small trees
used as chips
9% (3.4 Mm3)
aw us
9% (3.4
Mm3)
Black liquorTraditional
Energy biomass
46 TWh (55%) qu45% (18 Mm3)firewood
15% (6 Mm3)
Bark
21% (8.4 Mm3)
Energy biomass: 20% of the primary energy production
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
g
e
o
s
t
r
o
p
h
i
c
w
i
n
d
s
p
e
e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
ISBN 978-9979-68-238-7. NHP Report No. 50, P. 638-645.
Kriauciuniene J. & Kovalenkovienė M. (2008). Dependence of Lithuanian river runoff extremes on atchment area. XII Biennal International Conference. Hydrological extremes in small basins, 18-20 September, 2008, Cracow, Poland. ISBN-978-83-88424-38-0. P.183-186.
Kriauciuniene, J., Kovalenkovienë, M., and Meilutytë-Barauskienë D. (2007). Changes
/ces/publications/nr/1943