of
temperature anomaly
(ºC) between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Variation of annual T
anomaly (ºC)
between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Seasonal differences of P
anomaly (in %)
between 1991-2007 and
1961-1990
Seasonal differences of Q
anomaly (in %) between
1991-2007 and 1961-1990
Variation of annual P and Q
anomaly (%)
between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
-40
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35
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/media/ces/Kriauciuniene_Jurate_CES_2010.pdf
the
system works’ ( Q3Mulligan and Wainwright, 2005, p. 14). This might include paper- or computer-based representa-
tions of a system’s ontological model (i.e. key system components and their structural relationships). A common
representation is a directed graph in which components are visualized by nodes and relationships by directed
arrows between nodes (e.g. causal diagrams or inuence diagrams
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/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
(Accepted - In press).
Meilutytë-Barauskienë, D. & Kovalenkovienë, M. (2007). Change of spring flood parameters in Lithuanian rivers. Energetika.(Vol. 2) p. 26-33.
Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J. (2009). Climate change impacts on wind energy: A Review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews doi:10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.028.
Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausen, N.E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N
/ces/publications/nr/1943
61, 1-18.
Oddur Sigurðsson (2011). Iceland glaciers. Í: V. P. Singh, P. Singh & U. K. Haritashya (ritstj.). Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers. Springer, Dordrecht, s. 630-636.
Árni Snorrason, Jórunn Harðardóttir & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2011). Climate and Energy Systems – Project Structure. In: Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson & Halldór Björnsson (eds.), Climate Change and Energy Systems. Impacts
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11
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13
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(
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Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
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CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
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-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
/j.jenvman.2007.05.009
Huntjens P, Pahl-Wostl C, Grin J (2010) Climate change adaptation in European river basins. Reg. Environ. Change, 10, 263-284. DOI 10.1007/s10113-009-0108-
6
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf