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/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
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/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
Of Precipitation In Latvia. XXV Nordic Hydrological conference, Northern Hydrology and its Global Role, 11-13 August, 2008, Reykjavik, Iceland. ISBN 978-9979-68-238-7. NHP Report No. 50, P. 134-142.
Hisdal, H., Barthelmie, R., Lindström, G., Kolcova, T., Kriauciuniené, J. & Reihan, A. (2007). Statistical Analysis. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role
/ces/publications/nr/1943
Oddur Sigurðsson, Óðinn Þórarinsson, Philippe Crochet, Tómas Jóhannesson & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2012). Floods in Iceland. In: Z. W. Kundzewicz (ed), Changes in Flood Risk in Europe. Oxfordshire: IAHS Special Publication 10, 257-276.
Hálfdán Ágústsson & Haraldur Ólafsson (2012). The bimodal downslope windstorms at Kvisker. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 116(1-2), 27-42, doi:10.1007/s00703
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
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(
%
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Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
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CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
Christian Refsgaard, GEUS All week
AP Adriaan Perrels, FMI All week
SK Sigrún Karsldóttir, IMO All week
FU Frederik Uldal, University of Copenhagen Logistic support
Course material
Papers and book chapters - recommended reading
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management, 88, 1025-
1036. doi:10.1016
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf