in Table
2.1.
Some potential limitations of using the CMIP3 ensemble for probabilistic climate change
forecasting should be mentioned. First, current GCMs still have a relatively coarse horizontal
resolution. Within the CMIP3 ensemble, the grid spacing varies from 1.1 q latitude × 1.1 q
longitude to 4 q latitude × 5 q longitude (for the analysis presented here, all the model results
were
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
be
amplified by the RCM (Kjellstöm and Lind, 2009). Kjellstöm and
Lind (2009) found that a systematic wet bias of 10–15% in precip-
itation of the ECHAM5 GCM was increased to 20–30% in the RCM
Table 1
Selected example areas for closer evaluation of climate change impacts on flood discharges and flood inundation area extents. Q is discharge and WSE water surface elevation.
Map Ref.
Fig. 1c
Q gauge
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
on the use of
the relocation software, which was written by him and used in this research. First of all, I
want to thank them for their guidance, but especially my main supervisor, Kristín, for all
the patience, countless hours spent explaining and discussing various problems and giving
compliments for deeds well done.
I thank Ragnar Stefánsson for employing me at IMO, but this work was mostly funded
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_003rs.pdf
Fokstugu was used, r was 0.882. The differ-
ence in r for the two periods is only 0.015 and doesnot indicate a systematic shift in summer tempera-ture due to the change in station location.
Mass balance modelThe mass balance model calculates the mass bal-
ance, b(z), as the sum of ablation and solid precip-itation:
where Q is energy available for melt, Lm is latentheat of melting and Psolid
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
draw-down of at least one meter by the beginning of April. In addition to
Author's personal copy
Climate Change Impacts on the Vuoksi Watershed in Finland 3441
Fig. 2 Schematic presentation
of the new regulation scheme
for Lake Pielinen. The outflow
from the lake (Q) depends on
the water level and time of
year. The percentages give the
deviation from outflow
according to the natural rating
curve
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19 CMIP3 GCMs are used (Table 2.1). The horizontal grid spacing of these
models varies from 1.1 q latitude × 1.1 q longitude to 4 q latitude × 5 q longitude. For each
2 Some of the RCM simulations in the ENSEMBLES data base were conducted with funding from other sources,
including CES.
5
model, a 198-year time series (1901-2098) obtained
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
: 3601/B2007.EEA53004 and 3601/RO/CLC/
B2007.EEA52971, Landmælingar Íslands, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M., Rodwell, M. J., Vitart, F.,
and Balsamo, G. (2008). Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF
model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc., 134:1337–1351.
Brousseau, P., Berre, L., Bouttier
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_005.pdf