scale:
The Hierarchy Theory
• Emerged as part of a movement toward a general science of
complexity
• Rooted in various other disciplines but operationalised by
ecologists in the 1970s and 1980s
• Key references:
Allen, T. F. H. and T. B. Starr. 1982. Hierarchy: perspectives for ecological
complexity. University Chicago Press.
Allen T. F. H. and T. Hoekstra. 1992. Toward a unified ecology
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Cooperation and
Development, Paris, 2006).
2. R. H. Webb, J. L. Betancourt, U.S. Geol. Surv. Water-
Supply Paper 2379, 1 (1992).
3. C. A. Woodhouse, S. T. Gray, D. M. Meko, Water Resour.
Res. 42, W05415 (2006).
4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,
Contribution of Working Group (WG) 1 to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR4
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
Arason T., Geirsson H., Karlsdóttir S., Hjaltadóttir S., Ólafsdóttir U., Thorbjarnardóttir B., Skaftadóttir T., Sturkell E., Jónasdóttir E.B., Hafsteinsson G., Sveinbjörnsson H., Stefánsson R., and Jónsson T.V., 2005, Forecasting and Monitoring a Subglacial Eruption in Iceland, Eos, Vol. 86, No. 26, p. 245-252, 28 June 2005.
Location
Location of the weather radar at Keflavik airport
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2072
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
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120
140
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100
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Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
(To) and Tindfjallajo¨kull (Ti) ice caps, estimated as the mean difference
between available elevation maps for time period 1 and 2. (b, c) Corresponding temperature (T) and precipitation (P) at the Vı´k and Hveravellir weather
stations averaged over all the seasons covered by the differential digital elevation maps. The cold and dry years from 1979 to 1984 are included in the
mass balance calculation for Torfajo
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf