.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
A. Dunne, A. V. Vecchia, Nature 438,
347 (2005).
16. J. C. Knox, Quatern. Sci. Rev. 19, 439 (2000).
17. P. C. D. Milly, R. T. Wetherald, K. A. Dunne, T. L. Delworth,
Nature 415, 514 (2002).
18. Z. W. Kundzewicz et al., Hydrol. Sci. J. 50, 797 (2005).
19. R. Seager et al., Science 316, 1181 (2007).
20. IPCC, in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate
Change, Contribution of WG3 to AR4, B
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
Arason T., Geirsson H., Karlsdóttir S., Hjaltadóttir S., Ólafsdóttir U., Thorbjarnardóttir B., Skaftadóttir T., Sturkell E., Jónasdóttir E.B., Hafsteinsson G., Sveinbjörnsson H., Stefánsson R., and Jónsson T.V., 2005, Forecasting and Monitoring a Subglacial Eruption in Iceland, Eos, Vol. 86, No. 26, p. 245-252, 28 June 2005.
Location
Location of the weather radar at Keflavik airport
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2072
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
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S., Roald, L.A., Engen-Skaugen, T. Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway. Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, Oslo, 31 May - 2 June 2010, 80-81.
Bergström, S. HUVA training course for the hydropower industry. Lecture on climate change and hydropower. Stockholm, December 2, 2010.
Bergström, S. Lecture on climate
/ces/publications/nr/1938
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
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/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
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Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
and Torfajo¨kull but not for Eyjafjallajo¨kull, rather than an actual sensitivity difference. Effects
of cold and dry years are ignored in the uncertainty calculation.
(a) (b) Using temperature at Vı´k (c) Using temperature at Hveravellir
AAR (%)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w. eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
E 2025
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf