.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
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0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Nature 438,
303 (2005).
8. J. Lu, G. A. Vecchi, T. Reichler, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,
L06805 (2007).
9. S. Manabe, R. J. Stouffer, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529
(1980).
10. P. S. Eagleson, in Scientific Basis of Water-Resource
Management (National Academy Press, Washington, DC,
1982).
11. N. C. Matalas, in Global Change and Water Resources
Management (Water Resources Update No. 112,
Universities
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
Arason T., Geirsson H., Karlsdóttir S., Hjaltadóttir S., Ólafsdóttir U., Thorbjarnardóttir B., Skaftadóttir T., Sturkell E., Jónasdóttir E.B., Hafsteinsson G., Sveinbjörnsson H., Stefánsson R., and Jónsson T.V., 2005, Forecasting and Monitoring a Subglacial Eruption in Iceland, Eos, Vol. 86, No. 26, p. 245-252, 28 June 2005.
Location
Location of the weather radar at Keflavik airport
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2072
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
/ces/publications/nr/1680
S., Roald, L.A., Engen-Skaugen, T. Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway. Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, Oslo, 31 May - 2 June 2010, 80-81.
Bergström, S. HUVA training course for the hydropower industry. Lecture on climate change and hydropower. Stockholm, December 2, 2010.
Bergström, S. Lecture on climate
/ces/publications/nr/1938
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
)
Annual
Winter
Summer
• Accounts for natural
variability and differences
between climate models
Width of the distribution primarily determined by
natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer.
Winter Summer Annual
Best estimate (ºC) 1.3 0.7 1.0
5-95% uncertainty range (ºC) -0.5…+3.1 -0.2…+1.6 0.0…+1.8
Probability of warming (%) 90% 90% 96%
Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (2007
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
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Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
and Torfajo¨kull but not for Eyjafjallajo¨kull, rather than an actual sensitivity difference. Effects
of cold and dry years are ignored in the uncertainty calculation.
(a) (b) Using temperature at Vı´k (c) Using temperature at Hveravellir
AAR (%)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w. eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
E 2025
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf