.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Nature 438,
303 (2005).
8. J. Lu, G. A. Vecchi, T. Reichler, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,
L06805 (2007).
9. S. Manabe, R. J. Stouffer, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529
(1980).
10. P. S. Eagleson, in Scientific Basis of Water-Resource
Management (National Academy Press, Washington, DC,
1982).
11. N. C. Matalas, in Global Change and Water Resources
Management (Water Resources Update No. 112,
Universities
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
and volumeestimate from January 1st
Comparing historic sizes of lavafields: AD 934 and 1783
Gas dispersion model
Preliminary flood risk assessmentfor Jökulsá á Fjöllum
Web cameras of Míla
Web cameras of M&T
Related topics
Instructions on using earthquake pages
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2072
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
/ces/publications/nr/1680
S., Roald, L.A., Engen-Skaugen, T. Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway. Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, Oslo, 31 May - 2 June 2010, 80-81.
Bergström, S. HUVA training course for the hydropower industry. Lecture on climate change and hydropower. Stockholm, December 2, 2010.
Bergström, S. Lecture on climate
/ces/publications/nr/1938
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
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Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
and Torfajo¨kull but not for Eyjafjallajo¨kull, rather than an actual sensitivity difference. Effects
of cold and dry years are ignored in the uncertainty calculation.
(a) (b) Using temperature at Vı´k (c) Using temperature at Hveravellir
AAR (%)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w. eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
All seasons @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
Summer @bn=@T
(m w.eq. yr1 8C1)
E 2025
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf