(see e.g.
Steg, 2003). In studies from several countries, push
measures are perceived as less acceptable compared to
pull measures (e.g. Ho¨lzer, 2003; Rienstra, Rietveld, &
Verhoef, 1999; Steg & Vlek, 1997). For example, in a
European study, over 90% of the car users supported
improved public transport and park-and-ride schemes,
while less than 20% approved of reduced parking space
and cordon
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006.pdf
changes in the September-April mean geostrophic wind speed from 1971-
2000 to 2046-2065 (left) and the statistical significance of the ensemble mean change according to a
standard t test (right). Light, medium and dark red shading indicate significance at the 95%, 99% and
99.9% levels, respectively.
95 % 99 % 99,9 %
4
Fig. 4. As Fig. 3, but for the autumn (September
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task2_CMIP3_winds.pdf
-
balance model
• Monthly temperature
• Monthly precipitation
Step 2: Extrapolation of model
parameters to all glaciers in
Iceland and Scandinavia
• Gridded climate variables
Step 3: Future projections until
2100 for each glacier:
- run mass-balance model
- Volume-area scaling
Volume-area-length
scaling
V = c Aγ
• Glacier inventory data
• downscaled GCM scenarios
A(t
V(t
ΔV
Methodology
Step
/media/ces/Hock_Regine_CES_2010rs.pdf
of
temperature anomaly
(ºC) between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Variation of annual T
anomaly (ºC)
between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Seasonal differences of P
anomaly (in %)
between 1991-2007 and
1961-1990
Seasonal differences of Q
anomaly (in %) between
1991-2007 and 1961-1990
Variation of annual P and Q
anomaly (%)
between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
-40
-25
-10
5
20
35
50
1
9
2
0
1
9
4
0
1
9
6
/media/ces/Kriauciuniene_Jurate_CES_2010.pdf
and corrected data
-5 0 5 10 15
1
.
0
1
.
5
2
.
0
2
.
5
3
.
0
3
.
5
Temperature,°C
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
,
m
m
/
d
a
y
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
JulAug
Sep
OctNov
Dec
Year
obs ALUKSNE
DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
mod DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
JanFeb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
AugSep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Year
Jan
Feb
ar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec ear
After the
correction all 3
climate models
agree with
observed data
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
The applied glacier mass balance model is a simplified version of the energy balance approach.
An abstract of the model is given in the following, for a comprehensive model description we
refer to Machguth et al. (2009). The model requires air temperature (Ta), global radiation
(Sin) and precipitation (P ) for meteorological input. The model runs at daily steps, and the
cumulative mass balance bc on day t/media/ces/ces_geus_paakitsoq_full_report.pdf
) ................. 89
Figure 61 Tephra accumulation rate on the ground on 8 October 1982 (Öræfajökull) ............ 90
Figure 62 Tephra accumulation rate on the ground in Skaftafell (Öræfajökull) ...................... 91
Figure 63 Preliminary intersectional map ................................................................................ 93
Figure 65 Initial user-interface of the public web-site
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf
ith a broke
ere correc
a arose wh
peratures
ures were a
le 4 and Fi
Jökulsá wat
most prono
lace in war
vation grad
ause the ad
hold. Adde
uch less pr
1–2005.
Win Sum
-3.1 7.1
-4.1 6.6
1.0 0.5
ndá í Þist
n red curv
ted to fit th
en calibrat
to the inter
lso system
gure 6.
ershed (see
unced for t
m events a
ient for th
dition of a
d unrealis
onounced t
Year
1.1
0.5
0.6
ilfirði
e
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf
-1996
– 1997-2002
– Post 2002
Overall Effect of Wind Speed on
Damages
Damaged Homes By Wind Categories
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
< 120 120-
129
130-
139
140-
149
> 149
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
Damaged Homes (Cum.
Percent)
Average Home Size By Year
Built Categories
Average Home Size By Year Built Categories
2450
2500
2550
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
Pre 1980 80-96 97-2002 Post 2002
Avg. Sq. Feet
Damaged Homes
/media/loftslag/FMI_-_Disaster_Mitigation.pdf
Oddur Sigurðsson, Óðinn Þórarinsson, Philippe Crochet, Tómas Jóhannesson & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2012). Floods in Iceland. In: Z. W. Kundzewicz (ed), Changes in Flood Risk in Europe. Oxfordshire: IAHS Special Publication 10, 257-276.
Hálfdán Ágústsson & Haraldur Ólafsson (2012). The bimodal downslope windstorms at Kvisker. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 116(1-2), 27-42, doi:10.1007/s00703
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/