e
in
relatio
n
to
climat
echang
eadapt
ation
.X
,XX
,XX
X
is
a
ge
n
era
lguid
eo
n
th
e
relativ
e
imp
ortanc
e
leve
lo
fth
e
sourc
es
,
alth
oug
h
it
mus
tb
e
em
phasise
d
tha
tth
e
imp
ortanc
e
o
fth
e
indi
vidua
lsou
rce
s
o
fun
certaint
y
is
co
n
tex
tspe
cifi
c
St
ep
si
n
cl
im
at
e
ch
an
ge
ad
ap
tat
io
n
an
al
ys
es
(ch
ain
in
u
n
ce
rta
in
ty
ca
sc
ad
e,
Fi
g.
2)
So
ur
ce
s
o
fu
n
ce
rta
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
areas
from 3 to 15,000 km2
3 GCM/RCMs (with SRES A1B emissions)
Echam5/HIRHAM5
BCM/RCA3
HadCM3Qref/HIRHAM
2 Methods for transferring RCM output
to 1 x 1 km grid
Delta change
Empirical adjustment method (met.no)
25 calibrated hydrological models
for 115 catchments
Flood frequency analysis for
200-year flood
⇒ Construct pdfs from
150 results for each catchment
Viksvatn (Hestadfjord) - 83.2
IS92a
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
-scale Category
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
o
f
C
a
t
e
g
o
r
y
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
i
e
s
Permanent Homes
Casualties and Timing
Casualties and Time of Day
150
200
250
I
n
d
e
x
V
a
l
u
e
Fatalities
0
50
100
Overnight Morning Early Afternoon Late Afternoon Late Evening
I
n
d
e
x
V
a
l
u
e
Injuries
Nocturnal Tornadoes
7
8
9
10
R
a
t
i
o
N
i
g
h
t
t
o
O
t
h
e
r
T
i
m
e
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
a probability of an
adverse event occurring and a measure of the
associated event. Larger consequence and larger
probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk =
Probability x Damage)
Conclusions – Part 1
Terminology
• Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others –
and be specific defining the terminology you use
Concepts
• Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
- Instantaneous Index flood models for Region 2.......................... 44
Appendix IX - Comparison between reference and estimated instantaneous index
floods for Region 1........................................................................................ 45
Appendix X - Comparison between reference and estimated instantaneous index
floods for Region 2
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
Infrasonic and Seismic Signatures of the 2014
Askja Landslide Giulia Barfucci, Maurizio Ripepe, Giorgio Lacanna,
Emanuele Marchetti, Kristín
Jónsdóttir, Kristín S. Vogfjörð 10:00 – 10:30 Coffeebreak and poster session 10:30 – 11:50 Oral
session - Chair: Björn Lund 10:30
– 10:50 Calibration of a new ground motion model to
earthquake strong-motion
/norsem/norsem2016/program/wednesday
/ administrative aggregation level.
Table 1 – Tentative identification of relevant (predominant) operating levels.
Local Regional National* International
public privat
e
public privat
e
public privat
e
public privat
e
Infrastructure
designers xxx XX X
Infrastructure
builders xx XX X
Infrastructure
operators xxxXX
Transport service
operators (freight;
passengers
/media/vedurstofan/NONAM_1st_workshop_summary_v3.pdf