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  • 31. Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010

    -2050 30-year flood XX Flood frequency estimation applied to annual maximum flood series % change in 200-year flood Projected change in 200-yr. flood between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 Change (%) 90th percentile of 150 models Median of 150 models Change (%) Range of uncertainty in projections Median of 150 models Change (%) Range (%) Range 10 to 90% Downscaling method 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 /media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
  • 32. Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate

    on the costs of weather related delays and interruptions. Leviäkangas (2007) mentions an amount of 20 ~ 30 million euro per year. As mentioned before over time road users will start to adapt if they realize that certain delays occur too frequently. Responses could vary from shifts in departure time to switching to another mode or even relocation of activities. A note on service levels In road /media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf
  • 33. VI2010-006_web

    490 þar af regn 5 1 3 4 10 27 32 33 32 27 6 4 185 þar af slydda 22 14 13 12 8 1 1 1 6 21 20 16 135 þar af snjór 29 27 27 13 1 0 0 0 1 9 28 32 169 Mest á dag (mm) 31 37 41 28 31 42 20 25 25 39 28 21 42 Fjöldi regndaga 2 2 2 2 5 10 12 12 11 9 3 2 75 Fjöldi snjó/slyddud. 14 12 15 10 4 1 0 0 2 8 13 16 96 Fjöldi úrkomudaga 17 14 16 12 10 11 12 13 14 17 16 18 171 Meðalhiti (◦C) −2.2 −1.5 −1.3 1.6 5.5 9.1 /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/VI2010-006_web.pdf
  • 34. Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1

    .. But with caution Spatial scale Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that where relationships are found among aggregate data, these relationships will also be found among individuals or households, or vice versa. Key concepts (from ecology) Forest cover Population density y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60 R2 = 0.84 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 5 10 15 Population density F o re /media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
  • 35. Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010

    HYDROPOWER IN ICELAND Impacts and adaption in future climate Authors Óli Grétar Blöndal Sveinsson (Phd) Úlfar Linnet (MSc) Elías B. Elíasson (MSc) Landsvirkjuns system •Installed power 1850 MW • 96 % Hydroelectricity • 4% Geothermal •Production capacity 13 TWh/a •Customer base • 86 % Large industries • 14 % Small businesses / Household •No connection to other countries •Reliability a major /media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
  • 36. IPPC-2007-ar4_syr

    of significant changes consistent with warming Percentage of significant changes consistent with warming 89%94%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%100%98% 96% 91% 94% 94% 90%90%92%94% 355 455 53 119 NAM LA EUR AFR AS ANZ PR* TER MFW** GLO 5 2 106 8 6 1 85 7650 120 24 7645 28,115 28,586 28,671 Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004 33 Topic 1 Observed changes /media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
  • 37. vonKorff_etal-2010

    Copyright © 2010 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Von Korff, Y., P. d'Aquino, K. A. Daniell, and R. Bijlsma. 2010. Designing participation processes for water management and beyond. Ecology and Society 15(3): 1. [online] URL: http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss3/art1/ Synthesis, part of a Special Feature on Implementing Participatory Water /media/loftslag/vonKorff_etal-2010.pdf
  • 38. Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling

    stage )Suppor t an d ski lls n ee de d Har e et a l. (2003 ) X X An aly se lin ks be tw ee n participator y structur e an d proces s implementatio n Ba rr et ea u et a l. (2010 ) X X X Pr o vid e cle ar de sc rip tio n o fproces s (m an ag e ex pe ct at io n s); monitorin g an d evaluatio n Bot s an d va n Daale n (2008 ) X X X X X Su pp o rt pr o ce ss de sig n Ad ap te d fra m ew o rk u se d in th /media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
  • 39. Refsgaard_2-uncertainty

    Delta Change Method (correction of observed precipitation) Transformation of precipitation cont fut obsfut M M PP = Observeret n dbør 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99 Dato N ed bø r (m m /d ag ) Observeret Skal ring af e 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 4 - - - - t N ed bø r (m m /d ag ) Observeret D lta Change Critical assumption: Future dynamics = present dynamics No change in number /media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
  • 40. Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92

    ) and Jónsdóttir (2008). Therefore, comparison of measured and simulated water balance cannot be di- rectly used for validation of the model-generated precipitation. According to the non-scaled MM5 output for the period 1961–1990, mean precipitation for the whole of Iceland was 1790 mm y−1. After scaling the precipitation, this value was reduced to 1750mm y−1, i.e. by approximately 2%. This difference /media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf

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