-2050
30-year flood
XX
Flood frequency estimation applied
to annual maximum flood series
% change in
200-year
flood
Projected change in 200-yr. flood
between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050
Change (%)
90th percentile
of 150 models
Median of
150 models
Change (%)
Range of uncertainty in projections
Median of
150 models
Change (%) Range (%)
Range
10 to 90%
Downscaling method
0
10
20
30
40
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60
70
8090/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
on the costs of
weather related delays and interruptions. Leviäkangas (2007) mentions an amount of 20 ~ 30
million euro per year. As mentioned before over time road users will start to adapt if they realize
that certain delays occur too frequently. Responses could vary from shifts in departure time to
switching to another mode or even relocation of activities.
A note on service levels
In road
/media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
HYDROPOWER IN ICELAND
Impacts and adaption in future climate
Authors
Óli Grétar Blöndal Sveinsson (Phd)
Úlfar Linnet (MSc)
Elías B. Elíasson (MSc)
Landsvirkjuns system
•Installed power 1850 MW
• 96 % Hydroelectricity
• 4% Geothermal
•Production capacity 13 TWh/a
•Customer base
• 86 % Large industries
• 14 % Small businesses / Household
•No connection to other countries
•Reliability a major
/media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
Gov. (2011)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
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Exampl
e
nam
e
Purpos
e
Actor
s
involve
d
Participator
y
modellin
g
stag
e
Ty
pe
of
m
od
el
Pa
rt
ici
pa
to
ry
purpos
e
Dat
a
D
en
iti
on
Co
n
st
ru
ct
ion
Ve
ri
cation
/
Va
lid
a
tio
n
Us
e
FAB
E
Grampia
n
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
Delta Change Method
(correction of observed precipitation)
Transformation of precipitation
cont
fut
obsfut M
M
PP =
Observeret n dbør
0
5
10
15
2025
30
1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99
Dato
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret
Skal ring af e
5
10
15
2025
30
35
4
- - - -
t
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret D lta Change
Critical assumption:
Future dynamics = present dynamics
No change in number
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
) and Jónsdóttir (2008).
Therefore, comparison of measured and simulated water balance cannot be di-
rectly used for validation of the model-generated precipitation. According to the
non-scaled MM5 output for the period 1961–1990, mean precipitation for the
whole of Iceland was 1790 mm y−1. After scaling the precipitation, this value
was reduced to 1750mm y−1, i.e. by approximately 2%. This difference
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf