reference (µi(D)) and estimated (bµi(D)) index floods.
The reference index flood was defined by the arithmetic mean of the observed AMF sample at
the target site and the estimated index flood was obtained by Eq. (4).
RMSEµ(%) =
s
1
N
N
i=1
µi(D) bµi(D)
µi(D)
2
x100 (8)
Reference and estimated flood quantiles were compared at each target site, for average recur-
rence intervals T of 2, 5, 10, 20/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
12 1 month 12
Columbia River Basin Water Resource Sensitivity
to PCM Climate Change Scenarios
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Portland-
Vancouver
Spring Flood
Control
Reliability
Portland-
Vancouver
Winter Flood
Control
Reliability
Autumn Firm
Power
Reliability
(November)
% of Control
Hydropower
Revenues
McNary
Instream
Target
Reliability
(April-
August)
Middle Snake
Agricultural
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e
m
3
/
s
Observed 1961-90
MetNo-HIRLAM-HadCM3 A1B 2021-50
DMI-HIRLAM-ECHAM5 A1B 2021-50
SMHI-RCA3-BMC A1B 2021-50
Observed and modeled runoff , Aiviekste
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Observed Modeled Reference
mod SMHI
1961-90
mod SMHI
2021-50
Reference
mod DMI 1961-
90
mod DMI
2021-50
Reference
mod MetNO
1961-90
mod MetNO
2021-50
MAM JJA
SON DJF
m3/s
Monthly
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
-2050
30-year flood
XX
Flood frequency estimation applied
to annual maximum flood series
% change in
200-year
flood
Projected change in 200-yr. flood
between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050
Change (%)
90th percentile
of 150 models
Median of
150 models
Change (%)
Range of uncertainty in projections
Median of
150 models
Change (%) Range (%)
Range
10 to 90%
Downscaling method
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
)
Annual
Winter
Summer
• Accounts for natural
variability and differences
between climate models
Width of the distribution primarily determined by
natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer.
Winter Summer Annual
Best estimate (ºC) 1.3 0.7 1.0
5-95% uncertainty range (ºC) -0.5…+3.1 -0.2…+1.6 0.0…+1.8
Probability of warming (%) 90% 90% 96%
Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (2007
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208/
estimation. NVE Report No. 1 - 2009, ISBN 978-82-410-0680-7; 44 p.
Meilutyté-Barauskiene, D. (2009) Impact of Climate Change on Runoff of the Lithuanian Rivers, Summary of Doctoral Dissertation, Technological Science. Environmental Engineering (04T). Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuanian Energy Institute.
Roald, L.A., Hisdal, H. & Lawrence, D. (2009). Hydrologi og skred før, nå og i fremtiden. I/ces/publications/nr/1938